Temporal and spatial distribution of climate change in Shule River Basin
Climate change plays an important role in the allocation and adjustment of regional water resources and the im-plementation of sustainable development strategies.Based on the temperature and precipitation data of 6 stations in Shule River Basin and its surrounding area,this article analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of climate change in Shule River Basin by means of anomaly,linear regression,correlation analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Ken-dall test.The results show that:(1)the interannual variation rate of temperature in Shule River Basin from 1976 to 2022 is 0.040 4℃/a,and the temperature has increased by about 1.86℃ in 47 years,showing a significant trend of"high-low-high"temperature rise.The average temperature change in the Shule River Basin in 47 years was gradually increased from east to west and from north to south.The 47-year average annual temperature in Shule River Basin takes 13 years as the first main period,and the change period is 9 years in the 13 years scale.In the M-K test,the annual temperature of Shule River basin was at one interchange point,and its mutation year was 1996,showing an overall upward trend.(2)Precipitation in other areas of Shule River Basin except Mamanshan increased between 0 and 2 mm·a-1.The interannual variation rate of total precipitation in 47 years was 0.94 mm·a-1,the precipitation increased by about 36.8 mm in 47 years,and the interannual variation of precipitation showed a"high-low-high"wave fluctuation.The interannual variation of precipitation showed that the total precipitation decreased from east to west and from north to south.The annual precipita-tion takes 28 years as the first main period,and the change period is 19 years under the 28 years time scale.In the M-K test,there are 9 interchanges of annual precipitation in Shule River Basin,and the main mutation points are located in 1981 and 2009,and the precipitation shows a sudden trend of increase-decrease-increase.(3)The correlation coefficient between precipitation and temperature in Shule River Basin is-0.07,and the significance is 0.658,and the precipitation change has little effect on the temperature change.Annual precipitation and runoff were positively correlated with a correla-tion coefficient of 0.263 and a significance of 0.075,which belonged to the weak correlation.Precipitation change had a positive impact on runoff change,while the impact degree was relatively low.
climate changeinterannual variationcorrelation analysislinear regression analysisShule River basin
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