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水利枢纽泵闸大体积混凝土开裂风险精准预测研究

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目前,常规的混凝土开裂风险预测方法主要通过结合控制变量法,对影响开裂的因素进行模拟分析,由于忽略了不同因素对开裂情况的影响程度,导致预测精度不佳。对此,提出水利枢纽泵闸大体积混凝土开裂风险精准预测方法。通过对混凝土开裂机理进行分析,选定开裂因素变量,并对不同因素的敏感性进行计算,明确不同因素对开裂情况的影响程度。考虑到钢筋对开裂情况的附加应变,对大体积混凝土最大裂缝宽度进行计算,并采用贝叶斯参数法对开裂概率进行计算,最后根据开裂概率对风险进行分级,实现混凝土开裂风险的预测。在试验中,对提出的方法进行开裂风险预测精度的检验。结果表明,采用提出的方法对大体积混凝土开裂风险进行预测时,风险系数误差值较低,具备较为理想的预测精度。
Research on Accurate Prediction of Cracking Risk of Large Volume Concrete in Hydraulic Hub Pump Gates
The current conventional concrete cracking risk prediction method mainly simulates and analyzes the factors affecting cracking by combining the control variable method,which leads to poor prediction accuracy because it ignores the degree of influence of different factors on the cracking situation.In this regard,an accurate prediction method is proposed for the risk of cracking of large volume concrete in pump gates of water conservancy hubs.By analyzing the concrete cracking mechanism,the cracking factor variables are selected,and the sensitivity of different factors is calculated to clarify the degree of influence of different factors on the cracking situation.Considering the additional strain of reinforcement on the cracking situation,the maximum crack width of mass concrete is calculated,and the probability of cracking is calculated by using Bayesian parameter method,and finally the risk is graded according to the probability of cracking to achieve the prediction of concrete cracking risk.In the experiments,the proposed method was tested for cracking risk prediction accuracy.The experimental results show that the risk coefficient error value is low and has a more desirable prediction accuracy when the proposed method is used to predict the cracking risk of mass concrete.

hydraulic hubsmass concretecracking risk prediction

钟琦皓、王启凡、蒋晓艳、刘菲菲

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江苏省水利工程科技咨询股份有限公司,南京 210000

华设设计集团股份有限公司 常州分公司,江苏 常州 213000

淮安市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏 淮安 223001

水利枢纽 大体积混凝土 开裂风险预测

2024

水利科技与经济
哈尔滨市水务科学研究院 哈尔滨市水利规划设计研究院 哈尔滨市水利学会

水利科技与经济

影响因子:0.274
ISSN:1006-7175
年,卷(期):2024.30(2)
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