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基于风险决策分析的水闸除险加固施工技术

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针对水闸除险加固问题,采用风险决策分析方法,综合考虑安全性、适用性、耐久性等多个因素,其中各因素的失效概率在0~0.16 之间.在频率p由0 增至99.3%的过程中,降水量从最高的650mm逐渐减少至130mm左右.黑茨河口闸 1985-2015 年的水位和流量数据显示,最高水位出现在2007 和2010 年,分别为31.43 和31.47m,表明除险加固施工技术在实际应用中的有效性.研究结果对提高水闸的运行安全性和稳定性,降低工程风险具有重要意义.
Risk Decision Analysis Based on Reinforcement Construction Technology for Siuice Removal
The study focuses on the issue of risk reduction and reinforcement of water gates,using a risk decision analysis method that comprehensively considers multiple factors such as safety,applicability,and durability.The failure probability of each factor ranges from 0 to 0.16.During the process of increasing frequency p from 0 to 99.3%,the precipitation gradually decreased from the highest 650mm to around 130mm.The water level and flow data from 1985 to 2015 at the Heitz estuary gate indicate that the highest water level occurred in 2007 and 2010,reaching 31.43 and 31.47 meters.These results reveal the effectiveness of reinforcement construction technology in practical applications.This work has important practical significance for improving the operational safety and stability of water gates,and reducing engineering risks.

water gatedecision analysisexclusionreinforcementwater conservancy facilities

曹利平

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安徽省阜阳市黑茨河闸管理所,安徽 阜阳 236000

水闸 决策分析 除险 加固 水利设施

2024

水利科技与经济
哈尔滨市水务科学研究院 哈尔滨市水利规划设计研究院 哈尔滨市水利学会

水利科技与经济

影响因子:0.274
ISSN:1006-7175
年,卷(期):2024.30(3)
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