Magnitude Prediction and Discussion of Tectonic Reservoir-induced Earthquake
A large number of reservoir-induced earthquakes of different magnitudes have occurred at home and abroad,causing varying degrees of losses to the local economy,social environment and ecological environment.Since the 1970s,scholars from various countries have conducted research on the causes and prediction methods of reservoir-induced earthquakes from different perspectives.On the basis of previous studies,the basic characteristics and main factors of reservoir-induced earthquakes are analyzed and studied.The membership function of the influencing factors of tectonic reservoir-induced earthquake is proposed tentatively,which comprehensively considers the influence of reservoir scale,tectonic type,tectonic activity and rock lithology on reservoir-induced earthquake.A new mathematical model for reservoir-induced earthquakes is constructed,and calculations are performed on more than 100 cases of reservoir induced earthquakes in the world.Through comparative analysis,it is found that the reservoir-induced earthquake magnitude calculated using this model is close to the actual earthquake magnitude of various reservoirs,indicating that it is basically feasible to use this mathematical model to predict the magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes.It is hoped that this can provide some enlightenment for the prediction and prevention of tectonic reservoir-induced earthquakes.Additionally,it is found that the ground motion parameters make a relatively large contribution to the magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake,while the contribution of reservoir scale is relatively small,especially when the water depth exceeds 20m,the difference in magnitude caused by reservoir scale is not significant.
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