安徽省极端降水演变规律及与气候因子遥相关研究

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原文链接

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

中文摘要：[目的]随着全球气候变暖，极端降水事件强度和频率呈显著增加趋势，强降水引起的洪涝灾害不仅对社会经济造成严重的损失，还对生态环境带来极大破坏。2020年安徽省遭受持续时间长和降雨量大的特强梅雨降水过程，造成安徽省受灾严重。[方法]利用气象站点观测降水数据和ERA5再分析数据，探究安徽省极端降水时空演变特征和典型小时尺度降水过程，分析其与气候因子的遥相关关系。[结果]结果显示:1960-2020年安徽省6月和7月平均PRCPTOT变化率为9。0mm/10 a和8。0mm/10a。2020年梅雨期影响范围最大的四次降水事件，累计雨量超过100 mm的气象站数占比达34％以上。相比1998年和2016年，2020年安徽省6-7月平均PRCPTOT为900。56mm，是1960年以来最大值，是1998年和2016年的1。9倍和1。5倍;降雨强度(25。37 mm/d)为2016年的1。2倍、1998年的1。1倍，是历史均值的1。4倍。[结论]研究结果表明:(1)安徽省主汛期极端降水显著增加，且主要中心位于长江以南。极端降水量、降水强度、降水日数均增加。2020年强降水主要分布在长江河谷和皖南山区，降水主要发生在夜间和清晨;安徽北部地区降水更加集中，主要出现在下午，在15:00达到最大值。(2)与1998年和2016年相比，2020年安徽省降水总量、中雨以上日数和连续降水期明显增加。在降水强度相同的情况下，2020年中雨和大雨日数发生次数多，且连续降水期更长，是2020年6-7月降水量高的最主要原因。(3)安徽省6-7月极端降水指数与PDO在滞后3个月尺度上正相关性最显著，而滞后6个月尺度上极端降水指数与气候因子的正相关性不显著，SOI在滞后1个月(6个月)尺度上与极端降水指数呈正(负)相关性显著。

外文标题：Spatio-temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and their teleconnection with climate factors in Anhui Province

外文摘要：[Objective]The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events due to global warming are increasing signifi-cantly.Regional floods and urban waterlogging disasters caused by heavy precipitation have brought serious losses to the ecologi-cal environment and social economy.In 2020,Anhui Province has been affected by the long duration and heavy rainfall of the su-per-strong Meiyu precipitation process,causing floods in all rivers basin in Anhui Province.[Methods]In this study,we have used the observed precipitation data and ERA5 reanalysis data to calculation extreme precipitation index,explored the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation,and analyzed its teleconnection relationship with climatic factors.[Results]The result show that the average PRCPTOT increased by 9.0 mm and 8.0 mm per decade in June and July from 1960 to 2020.In the four precipitation events with the largest impact during the Meiyu period in 2020,the number of meteorological stations with precipitation exceeding 100 mm accounted for more than 34％.Moreover,average June-July precipitation in Anhui Province in 2020(900.56mm)reached a record high,1.9 times and 1.5 times higher than in 1998 and 2016.Besides,rainfall intensity(25.37 mm/d)was 1.2 and 1.1 times higher than in 2016 and 1998,and 1.4 times higher than the historical average.[Conclusion]The result show that(1)the extreme precipitation has a significantly increasing trend in the main flood season in Anhui Province,and the center is located in the south of the Yangtze River.The heavy precipitation in 2020,occur at night and early morning,is mainly distributed along the Yangtze River and in the mountainous areas of southern Anhui.While the precipi-tation in the northern part of Anhui occur in the afternoon(15:00).(2)Compared with 1998 and 2016,PRCPTOT,R10,R25 and CWD in 2020 have increased significantly.Under the same rainfall intensity,the heavy precipitation in June-July 2020 is mainly attributed to the significant increase of R25 and CWD.(3)The positive correlation between the extreme precipitation index and PDO in June-July in Anhui Province is highest on the lagged 3-month scale.While the positive correlation between the extreme precipitation index and climate factors is not significant on the lagged 6-month scale.Besides,there is a significant posi-tive(negative)correlation between the extreme precipitation index and SOI at the lagged 1-month(6-month)scale.

外文关键词：

extreme precipitationspatial-temporal characteristicsclimate factorsteleconnectionAnhui Provinceclimate changerainfall

作者：

姚蕊、杨惠琳、张书亮、苑倩玉、于世芳

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作者单位：

北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875

南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京 210023

安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖 241002

关键词：

极端降水时空特征气候因子遥相关安徽省气候变化降雨

基金：

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室2021年开放课题安徽省自然科学基金优青项目安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目安徽高校协同创新资助项目

项目编号：

4227148342071362108085Y132022m070200112021003GXXT-2021-048

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.01.006

水利水电技术(中英文)

水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.456

ISSN：1000-0860

年,卷(期)：2024.55(1)

参考文献量45