[目的]为缩小单一赋权方法结果差异性,解决评价过程专家规避后悔心理造成评价结果失真的问题,采用博弈论和后悔理论评价城市洪涝灾害韧性.[方法]从城市洪涝灾害韧性属性和韧性维度2个方面构建22个评价指标;运用博弈论集合OWA(Ordered Weighted Average operator)算子和改进 CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)法,充分考虑主客观因素对权重的作用,得到指标综合权重;引入有限理性的后悔理论,通过构建效用值、后悔-欣喜值、感知效用值矩阵评价西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性等级,并将评价结果与模糊层次分析法、OWA算子和后悔理论法,改进CRITIC和后悔理论法、后悔理论4种方法的结果进行对比,验证所采用方法的可靠性和有效性.[结果]结果表明:西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性评价值为4.62,韧性等级为Ⅲ级,属于中等韧性.其中灞桥区为Ⅳ级,新城区和未央区为Ⅲ级,碑林区、莲湖区和雁塔区为Ⅱ级,呈现东北区域韧性强于西南区域的特点.[结论]根据博弈论赋权结果可知:透水面积占比、汛期单日最大降雨量、互联网覆盖率、排水管网密度、主城区道路易积水点数量和植被覆盖率6个指标是影响西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性的主要指标,为城市洪涝灾害韧性管理提供参考.
Resilience evaluation of urban flood disasters based on game theory and regret theory:A case study of Xi'an City
[Objective]To reduce the differences in result caused by a single weighting method and address the problem of evalua-tion result distortion due to experts'avoidance of regret psychology during the evaluation process,the resilience of urban flood disasters is evaluated using game theory and regret theory in this study.[Methods]22 evaluation indicators are constructed from two aspects:the attributes of urban flood disaster resilience and resilience dimensions.Game theory with the Ordered Weighted Average operator(OWA)and the improved Criteria Importance Though Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method are applied to comprehensively consider the influence of subjective and objective factors on weights,resultsing in the synthesis of indicator weights.The bounded rationality of regret theory is introduced to evaluate the resilience level of flood disasters in the main urban area of Xi'an city through the construction of utility value,regret-pleasure value,and perceived utility value matrices.The eval-uation result are then compared with four other method:fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,OWA operator,regret theory,and im-proved CRITIC and regret theory,to verify the reliability and effectiveness of the adopted method.[Results]The result indicate that the resilience evaluation value of the main urban area of Xi'an city for flood disasters is 4.62,and the resilience level is grade Ⅲ,indicating moderate resilience.Specifically,Baqiao District is grade Ⅳ,Xincheng District and Weiyang District are grade Ⅲ,Beilin District,Lianhu District,and Yanta District are grade Ⅱ,showing that the resilience in the northeast region is stronger than in the southwest region.[Conclusion]According to the game theory weighting result,it is evident that the propor-tion of permeable area,maximum daily rainfall during the flood season,internet coverage rate,drainage pipe network density,number of easily flooded points on urban roads,and vegetation coverage rate are the main indicators affect.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
