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上海城区动态洪水风险图应用系统及典型暴雨内涝分析

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  • 万方数据
  • 维普
[目的]为了提高沿海超大城市对洪涝灾害的先知先觉能力，快速预测分析洪涝潮组合影响下的淹没风险时空分布，[方法]以水文-水动力暴雨洪水分析模型为核心模块，通过与外部的气象精细化降雨预报数据库、自动雨量站实时监测数据库及实时水情、闸泵运行数据库相关联，研发了上海城区动态洪水风险图应用系统。采用由雨量站点到气象格网和水力网格的降雨二级空间融合技术，实现了模型与气象预报降雨数据的有效耦合。利用数据挖掘提取和GIS空间分析技术构建了包含10项洪水风险要素要点的城市内涝预报专报自动生成方法，实现了对内涝风险的快速一站式概览。利用系统可以对城市暴雨、河道洪水和风暴潮等单一发生或遭遇组合引起的淹没分布进行快速实时预报计算，模拟和预测城市洪涝潮灾害的有关淹没特征数据和淹没动态过程。[结果]利用系统分析了 2023年6月23-24日暴雨的内涝风险分布，将模型模拟的积水区域与积水监测站、灾情直报和热线灾报的积水点进行对比，结果显示在150处对比积水点中，有129处误差不超过20 cm，占86％。模型模拟的积水空间分布与实际情况基本接近。[结论]结果表明:系统满足汛期常态化、业务化运行需求，能够为城市洪涝风险的实时动态分析和防汛指挥决策提供重要工具。
The dynamic flood hazard map application system of urban area in Shanghai and typical rainstorm waterlogging analysis
[Objective]In order to improve the foresight capacity of coastal mega cities on flood disasters,quickly predict and an-alyze the inundation risks under the combined effects of floods,waterlogging and surges,[Methods]the dynamic flood hazard map application system in urban area of Shanghai is developed,which takes the hydrologic-hydraulic rainstorm flooding analysis model as the core,and connects with external meteorological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF)data,real-time monito-ring rainfall,hydrologic as well as gate and pump station operation database.The secondary spatial integration technology of pre-cipitation from rainfall stations to meteorological and hydraulic grids is adopted,achieving effective coupling between the rain-storm flooding analysis model and meteorological forecast precipitation data.Using data mining extraction and GIS spatial analy-sis,the brief report of urban waterlogging can be generated automatically which contains 10 flood risk elements,realizing a quick overview of flood hazard in urban area.The system realizes the fast real-time prediction and calculation of inundation distribution and dynamic process caused by one event or the combination of rainfall,river floods and storm surge.[Results]The waterlogging distribution of rainstorm from June 23 to 24,2023 is analyzed using the system.According to comparison result between the waterlogging area and water depth simulated by the model and the real inundation records from monitoring stations,the direct dis-aster report and the citizen hotline,129 of the 150 comparison points have an error of no more than 20 cm,accounting for 86％.The spatial distribution of water depth simulated by the model is basically similar to the actual situation.[Conclusion]The system can satisfy the needs of normalized and operational application during the flood season,and provide an important tool for real-time dynamic analysis of urban flood risk and flood control decision-making.

dynamic flood hazard maprainstorm flooding analysis modelwaterlogging forecastflood forecastflood inunda-tionGISdata miningbrief report

王静、李娜

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中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京 100038

水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京 100038

动态洪水风险图 暴雨洪水分析模型 内涝预报 洪水预报 积水 GIS 数据挖掘 专报

国家重点研发计划国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金

2022YFC30064002022YFC3006403U2240203

2024

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.03.006

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.456
ISSN：1000-0860
年,卷(期)：2024.55(3)
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