首页|气候变化背景下赣江流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征

气候变化背景下赣江流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
[目的]在气候变化背景下，全球多区域复合高温干旱事件频率与强度呈现增加趋势。系统揭示赣江流域复合高温干旱事件的时空演变特征，为灾害风险防范提供参考。[方法]采用1961-2021年的日最高温度和表层土壤含水量数据，评估赣江流域热浪、农业干旱和复合高温干旱事件的时空变化趋势，对比分析复合高温干旱事件与单独极端事件的特征差异。[结果]结果表明:赣江流域农业干旱事件频次呈下降趋势(-0。027场/10 a)，热浪事件及复合高温干旱事件的频次呈上升趋势(0。084场/10a、0。013场/10 a)。与1961-2000年相比，2001-2021年赣江流域农业干旱的发生频率在北部大部分区域有所下降，南部地区大部分区域有所增加;热浪事件的发生频率在全流域均呈增加趋势;复合高温干旱的发生频率在东北部有所下降，南部显著上升。与单独热浪事件和单独农业干旱事件相比，复合高温干旱下的热浪事件历时和烈度分别增加16。87％和26。25％，农业干旱事件历时和烈度分别增加10。65％和26。86％。[结论]赣江流域南部地区复合高温干旱事件发生频率显著增加;相比于单独的极端事件，复合高温干旱事件的危险性有所增强，未来应加强该区域的复合高温干旱风险防范能力。
Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of compound hot-dry events in Ganjiang River Basin under climate change
[Objective]The frequency and intensity of compound hot-dry events are showing an increasing trend in multiple regions globally under the climate change.To provide references for disaster risk prevention in the Ganjiang River Basin,[Methods]daily maximum temperature and surface soil moisture data from 1961 to 2021 were used to assess the spatiotemporal variations of heatwaves,agricultural drought,and compound hot-dry events in the Ganjiang River Basin.Comparative analysis was conducted to identify the differences in characteristics between compound hot-dry events and individual extreme events.[Results]The result indicate that the frequency of agricultural drought events in the Gan River Basin shows a decreasing trend(-0.027 events/10 a),while the frequency of heatwave events and compound hot-dry events exhibits an increasing trend(0.084 events/10 a,0.013 events/10a).A comparison between the periods of 1961-2000 and 2001-2021 reveals that the frequency of agricultural drought occurrences has decreased in most northern areas but increased in most southern areas.The fre-quency of heatwave has shown an increasing trend across the entire basin,while the frequency of compound hot-dry events has decreased in the northeast and significantly increased in the south.Furthermore,compared to individual heatwave and agricultural drought,the duration and intensity of heatwave under compound hot-dry events have increased by 16.87％and 26.25％respec-tively,and the duration and intensity of agricultural drought have increased by 10.65％and 26.86％respectively.[Conclusion]The frequency of compound hot-dry events has significantly increased in the southern part of the Ganjiang River Basin,and com-pared to individual extreme events,the hazard of compound hot-dry events has been enhanced,indicating that the region's capac-ity for preventing the risks associated with compound hot-dry events should be strengthened in the future.

agricultural droughtheatwavecompound hot-dry eventsGanjiang River Basinclimate changetemporal and spa-tial changesprecipitationYangtze River Basin

徐慧、江善虎、任立良、王孟浩、崔豪、王元疆、杨晶晶

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河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京 210098

河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

农业干旱 热浪 复合高温干旱 赣江流域 气候变化 时空变化 降水 长江流域

国家自然科学基金江苏省自然科学基金

U2243203BK20211202

2024

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.04.001

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.456
ISSN：1000-0860
年,卷(期)：2024.55(4)
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