1977-2020年沂蒙山区极端气温时空变化特征分析

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中文摘要：[目的]为深入掌握全球变暖背景下沂蒙山区极端气温事件及复合极端高温事件的动态演变特征，以期为预防区域性灾害提供理论参考。[方法]根据1977-2020年沂蒙山区的逐日气温资料，利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet复小波分析等方法，对沂蒙山区极端气温事件及昼夜复合高温的时空变化特征进行了分析，并探讨了极端气温指数对全球变暖停滞现象的响应特征及发生持续性昼夜复合高温事件时的环流特征。[结果]结果表明:(1)近44年，沂蒙山区暖指数(TN90、TX90、SU25)呈上升趋势，冷指数(TN10、TX10、FD0)呈现下降趋势，具有昼夜不对称性，昼夜温差缩小，促使昼夜复合高温事件的发生。(2)极端气温指数突变时间大多出现在20世纪90年代和二十一世纪初期，突变时间上冷指数早于暖指数，突变后极端气温暖事件的发生频率增加，极端气温冷事件的发生频率减少;昼夜复合高温事件以2012为界，前期波动不明显，高发于2012-2020年;各极端气温指数及昼夜高温事件均在1998-2012年间响应了全球变暖停滞现象。(3)沂蒙山区西部地区为暖夜日数(TN90)、暖昼日数(TX90)以及昼夜复合高温事件的增速显著高值区。(4)沂蒙山区夏季昼夜复合高温事件在2012-2020年持续性较强，南压高压异常偏北偏东，中层副热带高压异常西伸是影响沂蒙山区持续昼夜复合高温的环流机制。[结论]综上，研究区将延续暖化趋势，沂蒙山西部为极端气温事件及复合极端高温事件的高发区域且在近些年增温显著，应重点关注以上地区长历时高强度增温在城市规划、人类健康和农业生产等方面产生的影响，及时制定适应气候变化的策略和措施，促进沂蒙山区生态环境和社会经济的可持续发展。

外文标题：Temporal and spatial variation of extreme temperature in Yimeng Mountain area from 1977 to 2020

外文摘要：[Objective]The dynamic evolution characteristics of extreme temperature events and complex extreme high tempera-ture events under the background of global warming in Yimeng Mountain area are being studied,aiming to provide a theoretical reference for regional disaster prevention.[Methods]The temporal and spatial variations of extreme air temperature events and diurnal combined high temperature in Yimeng Mountain area from 1977 to 2020 were analyzed based on daily air temperature da-ta,utilizing linear fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation test,and Morlet complex wavelet analysis.The discussion focuses on the re-sponse characteristics of the extreme temperature index to global warming stagnation and the circulation characteristics of persis-tent diurnal complex high-temperature events.[Results]The result showed that:(1)Over the recent 44 years,an increasing trend was observed in the warm index(TN90、TX90、SU25)in Yimeng Mountain area,while a decreasing trend was noted in the cold index(TN10、TX10、FD0),with diurnal asymmetry and a narrowing diurnal temperature difference,which has promo-ted the occurrence of diurnal complex high-temperature events.(2)The abrupt change times of the extreme temperature index mainly occurred in the 1990 s and early 21st century,with the cold index experiencing an earlier abrupt change than the warm in-dex.After the abrupt change,an increase in the frequency of extreme air warm events and a decrease in the frequency of extreme air cold events were observed.The period bounded by 2012 saw diurnal complex high-temperature events,with fluctuations being less obvious in the early stage and the highest occurrence from 2012 to 2020.The global warming stagnation during 1998 to 2012 saw a response from all extreme temperature indices and diurnal high-temperature events.(3)High growth rates in warm days(TN90),warm nights(TX90),and diurnal complex high-temperature events were significantly observed in the western Yimeng Mountain area.(4)A strong persistence of the summer diurnal complex high-temperature event from 2012 to 2020 in Yimeng Mountain area was noted.The circulation mechanism affecting the continuous diurnal complex high temperature in Yimeng Moun-tain area was identified as the southern pressure and high-pressure anomaly moving from north to east,and the mid-level subtropi-cal high-pressure anomaly extending west.[Conclusion]In conclusion,Yimeng Mountain area is anticipated to continue the war-ming trend,with the western Yimeng Mountain being a high-incidence area for extreme temperature events and compound extreme high-temperature events,where a significant temperature increase has been noted in recent years.Attention should be directed to-wards the impact of long-term and high-intensity temperature increases in these areas on urban planning,human health,and agri-cultural production,with the timely development of strategies and measures to adapt to climate change being crucial.This is aimed at promoting the sustainable development of the ecological environment and social economy in Yimeng mountain area.

外文关键词：

extreme temperaturespatial and temporal changethe compound hot extremes at daytime and nighttimeglobal war-ming stagnationYimeng Mountainclimate changehuman activitiesspatiotemporal distribution

作者：

回佩晨、徐旻天、时延锋、王希、徐晶、徐征和、徐立荣

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作者单位：

济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南 250022

山东省地质测绘院,山东济南 250000

山东建筑大学市政与环境工程学院,山东济南 250101

关键词：

极端气温时空变化昼夜复合高温事件全球变暖停滞沂蒙山区气候变化人类活动时空分布

基金：

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目山东省自然科学基金项目山东省自然科学基金项目

项目编号：

4200715342007176ZR2020QE285ZR2021ME145

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.05.002

水利水电技术(中英文)

水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.456

ISSN：1000-0860

年,卷(期)：2024.55(5)