基于多参数优化地理探测器的山洪灾害驱动力分析及风险评价

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国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
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中文摘要：[目的]大同市地处黄土高原东北边缘,区域内频繁的地下开采活动加剧了山洪灾害,严重威胁人民生命财产安全.为揭示该区域山洪灾害主要驱动力及对其进行风险性评价,[方法]基于大同市山洪灾害调查评价项目成果数据,采用多尺度网格进行采样,并组合参数最优地理探测器对连续型驱动因子进行最优离散化处理,探测分析山洪灾害驱动因子解释力和各驱动因子分级的平均危险度,最后基于所得解释力和危险度进行定量风险性评价.[结果]结果表明:降雨是诱发山洪灾害的首要因素(q=0.0888),人类活动次之(q=0.0618),地表环境最弱(q=0.0227);在所选降雨指标中,6h强降雨对大同市山洪灾害发生有平均最强解释力(q=0.1412),可在进一步山洪灾害临界雨量研究中予以考虑;大同市山洪灾害危险水平较高,中高危险区面积占比超 3/5,高危险区灾害点密度达0.0385 个/km2.[结论]网格尺度和离散方式的优化选择均可有效提高地理探测器分析结果解释力;短历时(<6 h)强降雨若降雨不能持续,对山洪灾害的诱发力度大打折扣;整体来看大同市山洪灾害危险水平较高,且主要集中分布在易损性水平较低区域.研究结果可为定量进行山洪灾害风险性评价提供参考,为大同市山洪灾害防治区划提供一定的科学依据.

外文标题：Driving force analysis and risk assessment of flash flood disaster based on multi-parameter optimized geographic detector

外文摘要：[Objective]Datong City is located in the northeast edge of Loess Plateau,and the frequent underground mining activi-ties in the region aggravate the flash flood disaster,which seriously threatens people's life and property safety.In order to reveal the main driving forces of flash flood disaster in this region and evaluate its risk,[Methods]based on the result of the flash flood disasters investigation and evaluation project in Datong City,multi-scale grids were sampled and optimal geographical detector was used to discretize continuous driving factors optimally.The explanatory power of the driving factors of flash flood disasters and the average hazard level of each driving factor were calculated.Finally,a quantitative risk assessment was conducted based on the obtained explanatory power and hazard level.[Results]The result show that:Rainfall is the primary factor inducing flash floods(q=0.0888),followed by human activities(q=0.0618)and the surface environment is the weakest(q=0.0227).Among the selected rainfall indicators,6 h heavy rainfall has the strongest average explanatory power(q=0.1412)for the occur-rence of flash floods in Datong City,which can be taken into account in the further study of critical rainfall for flash floods.In Datong City,the risk level of flash floods disaster is high,the area of medium and above risk areas accounts for more than 3/5,and the density of disaster points in high risk areas is 0.0385/km2.[Conclusion]The optimization of grid scale and discrete mode can effectively improve the interpretation power of Geographic Detector analysis result.Short-duration(<6 h)heavy rain-fall,if not sustained,the induced intensity of flash floods disaster is greatly reduced.Overall,the risk level of flash floods in Da-tong City is relatively high,and they are mainly concentrated in areas with lower vulnerability levels.The result of the study can provide a reference for quantitatively evaluating the riskiness of flash floods,and provide a certain scientific basis for flash flood prevention and control zoning in Datong City.

外文关键词：

flash flood disasterscale effectOptimal Parameters-based Geographical Detectordriving forcesrisk assessmentrainfallhuman activitiesinfluence factor

作者：

张晨钰、张攀、王伟、肖培青、王倩华

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作者单位：

河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京 210098

黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州 450003

河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

关键词：

山洪灾害尺度效应参数最优地理探测器驱动力风险评价降雨人类活动影响因素

基金：

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金联合基金项目

项目编号：

42041006U2243210

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.06.001

水利水电技术(中英文)

水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.456

ISSN：1000-0860

年,卷(期)：2024.55(6)

参考文献量32