首页|吉林省气象干旱指标适用性及干旱时空演变特征研究

吉林省气象干旱指标适用性及干旱时空演变特征研究

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[目的]吉林省是我国主要的粮食主产区,明确该地区干旱时空特征对于保障粮食生产安全具有重要意义,而适宜的气象干旱指标是准确识别旱情发展的前提。[方法]研究基于吉林省 55 个气象站点1960-2020 年逐月降水和气温数据,计算标准化降水指数(SPI)、降水距平百分率(PA)、标准化蒸散指数(SPEI)和相对湿润度指数(MI)3 和 12 个月结果。构建指标适用性识别方法,实现4 种气象干旱指数季节尺度监测结果与旱灾记录定量化精准识别分析,并基于最适宜指数分析研究全省年代际、年际和季节的干旱演变特征。[结果]研究结果表明:(1)4 种指数监测准确率由高到低分别为SPI(71。15%)、PA(66。67%)、SPEI(66。03%)和MI(55。77%)。(2)年代际尺度,1980 s前吉林省易旱地区主要集中在东部地区吉林市和延边州,干旱频率均高于40%;1980 s后,高值区域转移到吉林省西部白城和松原市,干旱频率均高于 20%。(3)年尺度、春、秋和冬季均呈显著湿润化趋势,干旱强度倾向率分别为-1。761%/10 a、-0。124%/10 a、-0。068%/10 a 和-0。054%/10 a。[结论]SPI指数是4 种指标中最适用于吉林省的指数,全省易旱地区从东南地区转移到西北地区,且中西部地区是干旱高发区。研究结果可为全省旱情监测、农业生产及旱灾防御指挥决策等工作提供参考借鉴。
Applicability of meteorological drought index and spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Jilin Province
[Objective]Jilin Province is the main grain-producing area in China,and it is important to clarify the spatial and tem-poral characteristics of drought in the region to ensure the safety of grain production,while suitable meteorological drought indica-tors are a prerequisite for accurate identification of drought development.[Methods]This study calculates the standardized pre-cipitation index(SPI),percent precipitation distance level(PA),standardized evapotran SPIration index(SPEI)and relative wetness index(MI)3 and 12-month result,based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 55 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2020.The seasonal scale s PAtial result of the four meteorological drought indices are com PAred with the historical drought records based on the constructed index applicability identification method.The optimum index is iden-tified quantitatively and precisely,and the interdecadal,interannual and seasonal drought evolution characteristics of the province are analyzed.[Results]The result of the study show that:(1)The four indices are monitored with the highest to lowest accuracy of SPI(71.15%),PA(66.67%),SPEI(66.03%),and MI(55.77%).(2)On an interdecadal scale,the drought-prone areas in Jilin Province before 1980 s are mainly concentrated in Jilin City and Yanbian Prefecture in the eastern region,both with drought frequencies higher than 40%;after 1980 s,the high value areas shift to Baicheng and Songyuan City in western Jilin Province,both with drought frequencies higher than 20%.(3)The annual scale,spring,autumn and winter all show significant wetting trends,with drought intensity tendency rates of-1.761%/10 a,-0.124%/10 a,-0.068%/10 a and-0.054%/10 a,respectively.[Conclusion]The SPI index is the most applicable index among the four indicators to Jilin Province,where the drought-prone areas of the province shift from the southeast to the northwest,and the central and western regions are drought-prone areas.The result of the study can provide reference for drought monitoring,agricultural production and drought defense command decision making in the province.

meteorological droughtdrought indicesindicator applicabilitydrought monitoringJilin Provinceclimate change

付平凡、杨晓静、苏志诚、李云霄、贺双燕

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中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038

中国地质大学(北京),北京 100083

气象干旱 干旱指标 指标适用性 干旱监测 吉林省 气候变化

国家重点研发计划江西省"科技+水利"联合计划项目中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心青年创新人才推进项目

2023YFC30066032022KSG01002

2024

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.456
ISSN:1000-0860
年,卷(期):2024.55(6)
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