水利水电技术(中英文)2024,Vol.55Issue(8) :13-23.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.08.002

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

Temporospatial characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China

孙锦浩 苏布达 王东方 黄金龙 王炳炜 戴然 姜彤
水利水电技术(中英文)2024,Vol.55Issue(8) :13-23.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.08.002

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

Temporospatial characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China

孙锦浩 1苏布达 1王东方 1黄金龙 1王炳炜 1戴然 1姜彤1
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作者信息

  • 1. 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,江苏南京 210044;南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京 210044
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摘要

[目的]旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件.明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据.[方法]基于1961-2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析.[结果]结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961-2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件.(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次.(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下.[结论]结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区.研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础.

Abstract

[Objective]Drought-flood abrupt alteration events have significant socio-economic and ecological impacts and are a frequently occurring and widespread compound event in China.Clarifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of Drought-flood ab-rupt alteration events can provide scientific evidence for regional disaster prevention and mitigation measures.[Methods]Based on meteorological observations from 1961 to 2021,daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(daily-SPEI)was calculated using the Penman-Monteith method to analyze the frequency,spatial extent,and trend of Drought-flood abrupt altera-tion events across different river basins in China.[Results]The result indicate that:(1)Temporally,from 1961 to 2021,the affected area by Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China has shown an increasing trend of 0.6%/10a with an average an-nual occurrence rate of 19.8%.(2)Spatially,these events are mainly distributed in the Huai River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,and Songhua River Basin,with areas experiencing over 30 occurrences accounting for 63.1%,20.7%,15.0%,and 14.6%of the total basin area,respectively,and the highest frequency reaching 53 occurrences.(3)There are distinct seasonal differences in aDrought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the majority occurring in the summer sea-son,covering over half of China's total area with more than 5 occurrences;followed by spring and autumn,each covering less than 15%of the total area;and the fewest occurrences are in winter,with less than 5 occurrences.[Conclusion]The findings suggest an overall increasing trend in the spatial extent of Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the central and northeastern regions being hotspots for frequent occurrences.The study result provide a scientific basis for monitoring and responding to drought-flood abrupt alteration events.

关键词

复合型事件/旱涝急转事件/逐日SPEI/时空变化特征/气候变化/时空分布/长江流域/洪水

Key words

compound events/drought-flood abrupt alteration events/daily-SPEI/temporospatial characteristics/climate change/temporal and spatial distribution/Yangtze River Basin/flood

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金委-联合国环境署合作研究项目(42261144002)

江苏省研究科研与实践创新计划(KYCX23_1292)

广西重点研发项目(桂科AB22080060)

出版年

2024
水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.456
ISSN:1000-0860
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