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中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

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[目的]旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件.明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据.[方法]基于1961-2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析.[结果]结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961-2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6％/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8％的范围发生旱涝急转事件.(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1％、20.7％、15.0％、14.6％,事件频次最高达到53次.(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15％;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下.[结论]结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区.研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础.
Temporospatial characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China
[Objective]Drought-flood abrupt alteration events have significant socio-economic and ecological impacts and are a frequently occurring and widespread compound event in China.Clarifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of Drought-flood ab-rupt alteration events can provide scientific evidence for regional disaster prevention and mitigation measures.[Methods]Based on meteorological observations from 1961 to 2021,daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(daily-SPEI)was calculated using the Penman-Monteith method to analyze the frequency,spatial extent,and trend of Drought-flood abrupt altera-tion events across different river basins in China.[Results]The result indicate that:(1)Temporally,from 1961 to 2021,the affected area by Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China has shown an increasing trend of 0.6％/10a with an average an-nual occurrence rate of 19.8％.(2)Spatially,these events are mainly distributed in the Huai River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,and Songhua River Basin,with areas experiencing over 30 occurrences accounting for 63.1％,20.7％,15.0％,and 14.6％of the total basin area,respectively,and the highest frequency reaching 53 occurrences.(3)There are distinct seasonal differences in aDrought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the majority occurring in the summer sea-son,covering over half of China's total area with more than 5 occurrences;followed by spring and autumn,each covering less than 15％of the total area;and the fewest occurrences are in winter,with less than 5 occurrences.[Conclusion]The findings suggest an overall increasing trend in the spatial extent of Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the central and northeastern regions being hotspots for frequent occurrences.The study result provide a scientific basis for monitoring and responding to drought-flood abrupt alteration events.

compound eventsdrought-flood abrupt alteration eventsdaily-SPEItemporospatial characteristicsclimate changetemporal and spatial distributionYangtze River Basinflood

孙锦浩、苏布达、王东方、黄金龙、王炳炜、戴然、姜彤

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南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,江苏南京 210044

南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京 210044

复合型事件 旱涝急转事件 逐日SPEI 时空变化特征 气候变化 时空分布 长江流域 洪水

国家自然科学基金委-联合国环境署合作研究项目江苏省研究科研与实践创新计划广西重点研发项目

42261144002KYCX23_1292桂科AB22080060

2024

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.08.002

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.456
ISSN：1000-0860
年,卷(期)：2024.55(8)