Extreme climate change and future trend prediction in the Tumen River Basin in recent 60 years
[Objective]Under the background of climate change,the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as flood disaster,high temperature and drought are increasing.Tumen River Basin is an important international cross-border river connecting China,South Korea and Russia,and one of the important international rivers in China.It is of great significance to study the extreme climate change and future trend in the basin for the production and life of the people in the basin.[Methods]Based on the meteorological data of 11 meteorological stations in and around the Tumen River Basin from 1960 to 2021,27 extreme climate indices were used to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature and precipitation in the basin by Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The evolution characteristics of future extreme climate events under three scenarios,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,are also predicted.[Results]The result showed that:(1)In the past 60 years,the extreme cold index of the extreme temperature index showed a significant downward trend,while the extreme warm indexand the extreme value index showed a significant upward trend.Most of the abrupt changes in the extreme temperature index were concentrated after 1980,and most of the 35～37 years were the first main cycle.In the extreme precipitation index,except for CWD(number of continuous wet days),the other indexes showed no significant upward trend,and most of them took 45 years as the first main cycle.(2)In the extreme temperature index,the extreme warm index and extreme value index showed a significant downward trend in the north of Wangqing,south of Herong and Antu regions,while the extreme cold index showed a significant upward trend in the south of Hunchun and Yanji-Longjing regions.The high values of extreme precipitation index related to pre-cipitation intensity are all located in the southern region of Hunchun.(3)From different scenarios in the future,except for ID0(number of freezing days)in the extreme cold index,which shows a decreasing trend compared with the base period,other climate indices show an increasing trend,and the greater the emission scenario,the greater the increase.[Conclusion]The results show that the temperature of Tumen River Basin is warming,and the precipitation is increasing.The abrupt change of extreme temperature index was concentrated after 1980,while the abrupt change of extreme precipitation index was not obvious.The extreme climate index showed different spatial characteristics,the probability of extreme high temperature events in south Hunchun and Yanji-Longjing region was higher than other regions,and the probability of extreme precipitation events in south Hunchun was higher than other regions.The probability of extreme precipitation and extreme high temperature events will increase significantly in the future,and the probability will gradually increase with the increase of emission scenarios.
climate changeextreme climate indextemporal and spatial changeCMIP6guture trendsTumen River Basin
万方数据
维普
