首页|极值降雨处理对城市内涝防治的影响分析

极值降雨处理对城市内涝防治的影响分析

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[目的]极端降雨的频发导致了降雨样本中极值的出现,进而影响暴雨强度公式的推求。为研究极值降雨样本对暴雨强度公式推求精度的影响,并增加其在城市内涝防治应用中的合理性,[方法]以广州市近52 a(1969-2020年)的降雨数据为例,基于3σ准则和年次大值替代极大值方法,对降雨样本进行了极值的判定和处理,分析得出极值存在造成暴雨强度公式计算结果略有偏大。以猎德涌排涝片为例构建内涝模型,通过对不同极值处理方法下暴雨强度公式推求的芝加哥降雨过程线进行模拟,分析两方法在不同降雨情景下地表淹没水量的差异。[结果]结果显示:采用年次大值方法与极大值方法推求的降雨模拟结果相比,极大值方法较年次大值方法模拟的地表淹没水量增加 11。36%~23。70%。[结论]结果表明:在实际应用中,采用年次大值方法,不仅保证了降雨样本的容量,而且提高了暴雨强度公式的推求精度,进而保证了城市内涝防治结果的精度。
Impact analysis of extreme rainfall treatment on urban waterlogging combating
[Objective]The frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall leads to the emergence of extreme values in rainfall samples,which in turn affects the derivation of the storm intensity formula.In order to study the influence of extreme rainfall samples on the inference accuracy of the storm intensity formula,and to increase its reasonableness in the application of urban flood preven-tion and control,[Methods]taking the rainfall data of Guangzhou in the past 52 years(1969-2020)as an example,based on the 3σ criterion and the yearly substitution of the large value for the large value method,the rainfall samples are determined and processed,and the analysis concludes that the existence of extreme values causes the calculation result of the storm intensity for-mula to be slightly.It was analyzed that the existence of extreme values caused the calculation result of the storm intensity formula to be slightly biased.The flooding model was also constructed using the Hunter Chung drainage sheet as an example,and the difference in the amount of surface inundation between the two method in different rainfall scenarios was analyzed through simula-tion of the Chicago rainfall process line deduced from the storm intensity formulae under different extreme value processing meth-od.[Results]The result show that,compared with the rainfall simulation result derived from the yearly large value method,the surface inundation water volume simulated by the large value method increases by 11.36%~23.70%compared with that of the yearly large value method.[Conclusion]The result show that in practical applications,the use of the yearly large-value method not only ensures the capacity of rainfall samples,but also improves the accuracy of the derivation of the storm intensity formula,which in turn ensures the accuracy of the result of urban flood prevention and control.

extreme rainfallrainstorm intensity formuladesign rainfall patternwaterlogging simulationpipe network recon-structionclimate change

唐颖、赵玉杰、王昊、宋利祥、黄金美

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北京城市学院城市建设学部,北京 100083

珠江水利科学研究院,广东 广州 510611

北京工业大学城市建筑工程学院,北京 100124

北京市工程咨询有限公司,北京 100124

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极值降雨 暴雨强度公式 设计降雨雨型 内涝模拟 管网改造 气候变化

北京市朝阳区科技计划国家自然科学基金项目

CYSF223751809297

2024

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.456
ISSN:1000-0860
年,卷(期):2024.55(9)