[Objective]Urban rainfall exhibits high uncertainty and spatiotemporal variability,and the timeliness and effectiveness of flood risk prediction and emergency response plans need to be enhanced.To improve the timeliness and effectiveness of"rain-fall forecasting-disaster risk identification-emergency response plan,[Methods]a data-intensive urban sub-hourly rainfall scenar-io library construction method based on Self-Organizing Maps and a forecast rainfall matching technique with dynamic time war-ping method for scenario rainfall library were proposed.Hourly rainfall monitoring data from Tongxian Station in Beijing Urban Sub-center from 1980 to 2015(36 years)were used as the basis for the scenario library data,and rainfall data for the same area in 2023 were used to validate the matching method for forecast rainfall.[Results]The result showed that the constructed urban sub-hourly rainfall scenario library could comprehensively and effectively reflect the rainfall characteristics in the study area.The matching effect of"forecast rainfall"was good,with an average Nash coefficient of 0.73,an average relative error of rainfall total amount of 0.17,and an average relative error of rainfall peak value of 0.09.[Conclusion]This method can quickly achieve real-time matching of forecast rainfall with scenario rainfall in the library.With pre-setting flood risk and emergency plan knowledge in the scenario library,effective identification of urban flood risk and timely response can be achieved.
关键词
雨型/动态时间弯曲/城市洪涝/预报降雨/风险评估/洪水/降水/气候变化
Key words
rainfall pattern/dynamic time warping/urban water logging/precipitation forecast/risk assessment/floods/precipi-tation/climate change
维普
万方数据