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宁波和舟山双偏振雷达对估测台风降水的对比评估

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[目的]为评估双偏振雷达定量降水估测(QPE)产品的区域适用性,[方法]以地面雨量站小时降水数据为基准,利用相关系数(CC)、相对偏差(RB)、均方根误差(RMSE)以及分级评分指标等方法,定量评估宁波、舟山的雷达QPE产品在 2019-2022 年期间 6 次台风("利奇马""米娜""黑格比""烟花""灿都""梅花")过程的准确度。[结果]结果显示:(1)宁波雷达对"黑格比"、"烟花"、"灿都"期间降水低估严重,RB值最低达到-71。56%,而对"梅花"期间的各个评估指标表现最好。舟山雷达在 6 个台风期间总体以低估为主,但没有出现类似宁波雷达严重低估的现象。(2)两个雷达QPE产品在台风期间的小时降水表现很好,CC均在0。80 以上,RMSE均在 1。93 mm以下。(3)随着雨强的增大,两个雷达对台风雨量的估测能力逐渐下降。舟山雷达 QPE 容易低估4mm/h以上的降水过程。宁波雷达 QPE 的水平参差较明显,先高估"利奇马""米娜"期间4mm/h以上降水率的降水,然后低估"黑格比""烟花""灿都"期间的所有降水过程,但在"梅花"期间的表现基本与实况吻合。[结论]总体上,宁波和舟山雷达基本可以估测出台风期间的雨量分布,但两个雷达QPE产品表现差异较大,宁波雷达QPE产品在台风期间稳定性表现比舟山雷达更差。业务系统的QPE算法在宁波和舟山地区可能需本地化改进。
Comparison and evaluation of typhoon rainfall estimated by dual polarization radar in Ningbo and Zhoushan
[Objective]Aiming at investigating the applicability of the quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)product of the dual polarization radar in Ningbo and Zhoushan,China,[Methods]based on the hourly rainfall data of rain gauges,the correlation coefficient(CC),relative bias(RB),root mean square error(RMSE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR)and critical success index(CSI)are used to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of radar QPE products of Ningbo and Zhoushan during the six typhoon rainfalls("Lekima""Mina""Hagupit""In-Fa""Chanthu"and"Muifa")from 2019 to 2022.[Results]The result show that:(1)The Ningbo radar significantly underestimates the rainfall during"Hagubit","In-Fa",and"Chanthu",with the lowest RB value of-71.56%,while it has the best performance for each evaluation index during"Muifa".The Zhoushan radar generally underestimates during 6 typhoons,but not as much as the Ningbo radar.(2)The two QPE products have a good performance in the hourly rainfall,with CC above 0.80 and below 1.93 mm.(3)With the increase of rain intensity,the estimation ability of the two radars for typhoon rainfall decreases gradually.The Zhoushan radar QPE tends to underestimate the precipitation process above 4 mm/h.There is an obvious instability in the performance of the Ningbo radar QPE.It overestimates the rainfall rate above 4 mm/h during"Lekima"and"Mina",while underestimates all the rainfall processes during"Hagubit","In-Fa"and"Chanthu".But its estimation for"Muifa"is basically consistent with the rain gauges.[Conclusion]Overrall,the Ningbo and Zhoushan radars can generally estimate the rainfall distribution during the typhoons.The performance of the two radar QPE products is quite different.The stability of the Ningbo radar QPE during typhoons is worse than the Zhoushan radar.A requirement for local modification of the QPE algorithm in the operation system over Ningbo and Zhoushan.

radar QPEquantitatively evaluatetyphoon rainfallNingbo and Zhoushan radarsrainfallrain intensityclimate changetyphoon

汪冬冬、吴福浪、陈生、沃伟峰、钱燕珍、李云

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宁波市气象局 宁波市气象台院士工作站,浙江 宁波 315000

中国民用航空宁波空中交通管理站,浙江 宁波 315012

中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃 兰州 730000

甘肃省遥感重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000

中国科学院 黑河遥感试验研究站,甘肃 兰州 730000

宁波市海曙区气象局,浙江 宁波 315000

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雷达QPE 定量评估 台风降水 宁波和舟山雷达 降雨 雨强 气候变化 台风

2024

水利水电技术(中英文)
水利部发展研究中心

水利水电技术(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.456
ISSN:1000-0860
年,卷(期):2024.55(10)