Study on prediction of temperature,precipitation and runoff in the upper Zhanghe River Basin based on CMIP6
[Objective]The purpose of this paper is to clarify the future changes of temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Upper Zhanghe River Basin.[Methods]The future temperature and precipitation were estimated using the SDSM downscaling model,based on the data from four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)under the EC-Earth3 model in the CMIP6.Additionally,the future runoff changes were estimated by incorporating the SWAT Hydrological model.[Results]The future maximum and minimum temperatures,as well as precipitation are projected to increase from 2023 to 2070.But the growth rates vary under different scenarios,which are 0.19 ℃/10 a,0.19 ℃/10 a,0.36 mm/a under SSP1-2.6,0.25 ℃/10 a,0.29 ℃/10 a,0.49 mm/a under SSP2-4.5,0.53 ℃/10 a,0.44 ℃/10 a,-0.17 mm/a under SSP3-7.0,and 0.76 ℃/10 a,0.57 ℃/10 a,-0.04 mm/a under SSP5-8.5;The future runoff in the main stream of the Qingzhang River would decrease under four scenarios,with a decrease ranging from 8.48％to 25.36％,mostly concentrated in January to August;On the other hand,the future runoff of the main stream of the Zhuozhuang River and the main stream of the Zhanghe River would increase under four scenarios,with increases ranging from 28.59％to 72.58％and 20.99％to 54.24％,respectively.Moreover,in the scenarios of SSP1-2.6 in the short-term(2025-2050),SSP3-7.0 in the mid-term(2021-2070),and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the entire future period,the monthly peak runoff of the main stream of the Zhanghe River in August and September would be higher than the reference period,with a maximum increment of 34.91 m3/s.[Conclusion]On the one hand,the Upper Zhangehe River Basin may experience a warm and humid phenomenon in the future,and on the other hand,there may be an increased risk of extreme hydrological events in this region.By simulating future climate conditions and analyzing the changes in runoff characteris-tics in the upstream basin of the Zhang River,we can provide scientific evidence and theoretical support for regional water resource allocation and utilization.
SWATthe upper Zhangehe River BasinSDSMCMIP6climate changerunoff simulation
万方数据
维普
