[目的]随着快速城市化和气候变化，暴雨内涝事件频发给城市运行带来了严重的干扰和损失。城市产汇流规律的变化是加剧暴雨内涝的根本原因，研究城市产汇流演变规律及其空间格局特征对指导暴雨内涝防控具有重要意义。[方法]利用CLCD(China Land Cover Dataset)逐年土地利用数据，基于SCS-CN模型和推理公式法模拟典型快速城市化地区(广州市番禺区)的产汇流过程;兼顾水文单元整体性与空间格局精细刻画，从排涝片和公里格网两个空间尺度对产汇流的历史演变规律和空间格局进行分析;利用内涝点数据对产汇流格局特征分类的合理性进行验证。[结果]2000-2021年间，研究区产流量与洪峰流量呈现整体上升但增幅下降的趋势。产流量格局为西部高于东部、南部高于北部、中部高于周边;洪峰流量格局则沿河涌水系分布，周边高于中间、东部高于西部、南部高于北部。在排涝片与公里格网两个空间尺度上，产汇流格局特征的等级与内涝点密度呈现正相关。SCS-CN模型像元计算所得结果显著高于区域计算结果，且二者差异随着降雨重现期的增加而变大。[结论]基于产汇流模拟的格局分类能有效表达暴雨内涝灾害严重程度和排涝标准需求，可为内涝灾害格局识别与防灾减灾资源配置提供科学依据。产汇流过程存在空间尺度效应，建议在具体应用时进行多尺度综合分析。
Urban runoff and confluence changes simulation and spatial pattern
[Objective]With rapid urbanization and climate change,the frequently occurring urban pluvial flooding events have brought about serious disruptions and losses to cities.Changes in urban runoff generation and confluence flow are the main causes of urban pluvial flooding,it is important to analyze the evolution of urban runoff and confluence patterns for guiding the prevention and control of urban pluvial flooding.[Methods]The runoff and confluence processes in Panyu District,Guangzhou City,were simulated by using the SCS-CN model and rational method with CLCD(China Land Cover Dataset)land cover data.Spatial-tem-poral patterns of simulated result were further analyzed on two scales namely km-grid and drainage zone to represent the hydrologi-cal unit and detailed spatial pattern.Also,historical flood data were applied to validate the patterns of runoff and confluence.[Results]During the period 2000-2021,the runoff and confluence of the study area showed overall increasing trends but at de-creasing rates.The runoff pattern was higher in the west than in the east,larger in the south than in the north,and larger in the center than in the periphery;the peak discharge pattern was distributed along the river system,with the boundary larger than the middle,the east larger than the west,and the south larger than the north.Ranks of runoff and confluence patterns are positively correlated to flood density.[Conclusion]Pattern classification based on simulated runoff and confluence can be able to character-ize the states of urban pluvial flooding,and further provide a guide for flood pattern recognition and resource allocation.Urban runoff and confluence processes are scale-dependent;thus,multi-scale analysis should be conducted in applications.
urban pluvial floodingrunoff generation and confluenceSCS-CNrational methodspatial pattern
万方数据
维普
