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基于DEMATEL-ISM方法的水电站机组检修作业安全事故致因链分析

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针对水电站机组检修作业种类和危险因素多、安全事故频发等问题,通过文献挖掘与专家访谈方式,对水电站机组检修作业安全影响因素类别进行了划分.基于DEMATEL-ISM方法,构建了安全事故致因多层次递阶ISM模型来确定事故致因因素层级,通过剖析事故致因因素的中心度和权重,挖掘关键致因因素和推求事故致因链的路径权重,厘定关键致因链.采用该模型对某水电站致因链进行了分析,结果表明,安全检查不到位为关键致因因素,"安全检查不到位→违规作业→设备的问题→粉尘、油漆等有害物质"为关键致因链.
Analysis of safety accident causation chain in hydropower station maintenance operations based on DEMATEL-ISM method
Aiming at the problems of diversified maintenance operations,numerous risk factors,and frequent safety accidents in hydropower station units,the safety factors affecting the maintenance operations of hydropower station units are classified through literature mining and expert interviews.Based on the DEMATEL-ISM method,a multi-level hierarchical ISM model of safety accident causes was constructed to determine the level of accident causes.By analyzing the centrality and weight of accident causes,mining the key causal factors and deriving the path weights of the accident causal chain,the key causal chain was determined.The model was used to analyze the key causal chain of a hydropower station as an example.The results show that inadequate safety inspections are the key cause factor,and the key causation chain is inadequate safety inspections→illegal operations→equipment problems→dusts,paints,and other harmful substances.

hydropower station unit maintenanceDEMATEL-ISM methodaccident causation chaincausal factor weightspath weights

晋良海、张荣昊、明华军、李钰涵、李晨曦、邹颂香

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三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌 443002

水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌 443002

三峡大学安全生产标准化评审中心,湖北宜昌 443002

湖北安环科技有限公司,湖北宜昌 443002

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水电站机组检修 DEMATEL-ISM方法 事故致因链 致因因素权重 路径权重

国家自然科学基金面上项目教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目

5217913621YJA630038

2024

水利水电科技进展
河海大学

水利水电科技进展

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.866
ISSN:1006-7647
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)
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