首页|国际贸易网络拓扑结构及经济增长效应研究——以半导体贸易为例

国际贸易网络拓扑结构及经济增长效应研究——以半导体贸易为例

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本文在数字经济发展背景下,选择作为数字经济建设基础的半导体为研究对象,使用2001-2020年联合国商品贸易数据库HS编码为8541的半导体贸易数据,基于复杂网络分析方法构建有向加权半导体国际贸易网络,并分析了其拓扑结构特征.通过面板回归模型,探究网络拓扑结构对全球经济增长的影响及其作用机制.研究发现,半导体国际贸易网络呈现小世界网络特性,中国和美国拥有较高的入度、接近中心性和特征向量中心性,他们均居于网络的中心,中国的中心性地位持续上升,但是美国地位下降.半导体国际贸易网络个体中心性的提升显著促进经济增长,一个国家(地区)在网络中越活跃、越处于中心以及影响力越大,经济增长越快.机制分析结果表明,网络中心结构通过技术创新推动经济发展.此外,一国(地区)是否为"一带一路"沿线国家(地区)和OECD成员对网络中心性与经济增长之间的关系产生异质性影响.本文综合复杂网络和计量理论方法,从经济全球化视角为中国半导体产业发展和经济增长提供了政策建议,同时也为经济问题分析提供新的研究思路.
International Trade Network Topological Structure and Its Impact on Economic Growth:A Case Study of Semiconductor Trade
Under the background of the development of digital economy,this paper selects semiconduc-tors which are the foundation of digital economy construction as the research object,using the semicon-ductor trade data(HS code is 8541)of the United Nations Commodity Trade Database from 2001 to 2020 to construct a directed weighted semiconductor international trade network based on complex network methods and its topological structure characteristics are analyzed.Through panel regression model,the impact of network topology on global economic growth and its mechanism of action are explored.The results show that the semiconductor international trade network presents the characteristics of a small world network.China and the United States have a high in-degree,closeness centrality and eigenvector centrality,which means that they are all in the center of the trade network.China's centrality status continues to rise,but the United States'centrality declines.The improvement of the individual centrali-ties about semiconductor international trade network significantly promotes economic growth.The more active,central,and influential a country(region)is in the network,the faster its economy grows.The mechanism analysis results show that the central structure of network promotes economic development through technological innovation.In addition,whether a country(or region)is a country(or region)along the Belt and Road and an OECD member has a heterogeneous impact on the relationship between semiconductor trade network centrality and economic growth.This paper offers some policy recom-mendations for China's semiconductor industry and economic growth from the perspective of economic globalization,as well as new research ideas for the study of economic problems based on complex network and econometric theory.

semiconductorinternational trade networknetwork topological structuretechnological innovationeconomic growth

尹潇潇、石磊

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东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连 116025

云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南昆明 650221

半导体 国际贸易网络 网络拓扑结构 技术创新 经济增长

国家自然科学基金面上项目国家社会科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金重点项目

1227147122&ZD15811931015

2024

数理统计与管理
中国现场统计研究会

数理统计与管理

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.114
ISSN:1002-1566
年,卷(期):2024.43(3)
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