Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Controlled Branching Processes with Missing Data
Controlled branching process with random control distribution is an important model to describe population evolution.The estimation of offspring distribution and control distribution is very important,which determine the evolutionary characteristics of the population.However,in practical problems,the data is missing for some generations which is often caused by the discontinuity of obser-vation or improper preservation of data.In this paper,we focus on the this case.Under some regular assumptions,we obtain the conditional distribution function of missing samples,design the estimation method based on EM algorithm,and verify the effectiveness of this method through numerical simulation.Finally,we use this method to empirically analyze the COVID-19 data of Hangzhou from January 23 to February 16,2020,explore the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 virus in Hangzhou,and evaluate the implementation effect of epidemic prevention and control policy.
万方数据
维普
