Study on the characteristic of multiply events of drought and flood probability in Luanhe River Basin based on Copula
Based on the daily precipitation data of 1957-2010 at Duolun, Chengde, Qinglong and Leting Meteorological stations in the Luanhe River Basin, the sequences of percentage of precipitation anomalies (Spring/Summer/Autumn) were fitted by GP model. By the L-moment method, the parameters of GP were estimated. Two kinds of Copula functions (Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard) were used to fit the spring-sum?mer and summer-autumn percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences and the probability of multiple events of drought and flood were calculated. The results show that (1) Both the Clayton and Gumbel-Hou?gaard can better fit the seasonal percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences;(2) The multiple events of drought and flood are most likely to take place in Qinlong and Leting,the frequency of long drought is high during spring and summer,the frequency of alternating occurrences of drought and flood is high dur?ing summer and autumn and the summer-autumn multiple events of drought and flood are easily to ex?plored.
Luanhe River BasinCopulaMultiply Events of Drought and FloodProbability
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
