Incorporating temporal changes into flood loss assessments
Floods are one of the most extensive natural disasters in China.Focusing on the assessments of socioeco-nomic losses,this paper constructs flood loss functions by introducing a time term to consider temporal change.On the one hand,the functions account for the static S-shaped curve relationship in which disaster losses increase in-creasingly and then gradually with the intensity of disaster-causing factors;on the other hand,the functions take dynamic changes of disaster losses over time into consideration by the three parameters of magnitude,shape and lo-cation.Based on the data set of flood-affected population and direct economic loss provided by the"China Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Bulletin",assessments of flood disaster losses are conducted for each provincial administrative region from 2006 to 2021.The results show that by fitting the flood loss functions,the scatter plots of flood loss with respect to disaster factor intensity and time can be effectively expanded into continuous three-dimen-sional surfaces and two-dimensional heat maps.The flood-affected population in various provincial administrative regions generally shows a trend of decreasing year by year and tends to increase with the increase of the intensity of disaster-causing factors.The direct economic losses of various provincial-level administrative regions show consid-erable differences,with characteristics such as sharp decline,slow decline and slight increase over time.The flood loss functions considering temporal changes can serve as an effective tool for disaster assessment under chan-ging environments,and provides reference for regional flood disaster assessments.
万方数据
维普
