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缺水胁迫区水系统优化调控理论与模式

Theory and pattern of optimal regulation of water system in water shortage stress area

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开展水系统优化调控是实现缺水胁迫区人-水-生态和谐可持续发展的关键措施之一,对于保障地区经济社会稳定发展和生态健康具有重要意义.本文以京津冀作为典型缺水胁迫区案例,通过解析水系统内涵,总结得出缺水胁迫区水系统存在深度耦合、强烈竞争和系统失衡三大现象,发现水系统呈现非稳态和稳态之间交替演进的模式,并通过构建水系统稳态指数,研判了京津冀地区水系统状态变化发展过程.研究以实现自然社会水系统健康为调控目标,提出缺水胁迫区水系统"高内聚-低耦合"解耦式调控模式,结合京津冀现实状态,在需求侧开展"保障刚需-压缩弹性-抑制奢侈"层次化调控,在供给侧进行"自然水网-人工水网-虚拟水网"适配性优化,提出京津冀"三线七河、四区八源"一体化水网布局,进而实现水系统的整体健康.
The optimal regulation of water system is one of the key measures to realize the harmonious and sus-tainable development of human-water-ecology in water shortage stress area,which is of great significance to en-sure the stable development of regional economy and society and ecological health.In this paper,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is taken as a typical case of water shortage stress region.By analyzing the connotation of wa-ter system,it is concluded that the water system in the water shortage stress region has three phenomena:deep coupling,strong competition and system imbalance,and it is found that the water system presents an alternating e-volution pattern between unsteady and steady state.The state change and development process of the water system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is evaluated by constructing the steady state index of the water system.In order to achieve the health of natural social water systems,a decoupling regulation model of"high cohesion-low coupling"is proposed.Based on the current situation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,a hierarchical regulation of"ensu-ring rigid-reducing flexible-restraining luxury"is carried out on the water demand side,and the adaptation optimi-zation of"natural water network-artificial water network-virtual water network"is carried out on the water supply side,and the integrated water network layout of"three lines,seven rivers,four districts and eight sources"is pro-posed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,so as to achieve the overall health of the water system.

water shortage stress areawater systemevolution mechanismregulation pattern

赵勇、常奂宇、李海红、秦长海、何凡、曲军霖

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中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

天津师范大学京津冀生态文明发展研究院,天津 300387

缺水胁迫区 水系统 演进机制 调控模式

国家杰出青年科学基金项目国家重点研发计划项目

520250932021YFC3200204

2024

水利学报
中国水利学会

水利学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.778
ISSN:0559-9350
年,卷(期):2024.55(2)
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