首页|协调公平与效率的"四水四定"研究Ⅱ:应用

协调公平与效率的"四水四定"研究Ⅱ:应用

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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宁夏干旱缺水且发展不均衡,以水定需是必然选择.本文针对宁夏水资源条件和经济社会特征,构建协调公平与效率的"四水四定"优化模型,开展全区"四水四定"方案分析.模型以用水总量红线指标为水资源刚性约束,根据区域发展战略确定刚性保障需求,通过水与"四定"协调关系分析得出经济社会发展和用水效率可行变化范围.以2019年为现状、2025年为目标年,采用模型协调优化得出"四定"规模控制目标,以及分行业和区县的用水总量控制指标.结果表明,在全区73.27亿m3用水总量和41.5亿m3耗水约束下,满足全面小康的"四定"规模为750万人、5481亿元GDP、84.7万hm2灌溉面积和791 km2建成区面积.通过对比分析方案的公平性和效率提升状况,揭示了不同行业、区域的水量流转方向,表明约束设置对结果有显著影响,可为区域经济社会发展和水资源管控决策提供参考.
Study on"water dominates development"based on equity and efficiency Ⅱ:application
Drought and water shortage are the basic water conditions in Ningxia,and water-based development is the only way for Ningxia's high-quality development.Aiming at the water resources conditions and socio-economic characteristics of Ningxia,the objective function and classification constraints are established according to the re-quirements of"water dominates development"multi-objective optimization model.The feasible range of development space and water use efficiency is obtained by analyzing the coordination relationship between water and"human,industry,land,and urban",or"Four Determinations".The rigid guarantee demand is defined based on the development strategy.Following the principle of"ensuring rigid demand,efficiency driving and regional bal-ance",the analysis of the"water dominates development"scheme in the whole region is carried out based on coun-ty-level units,and the scale control objectives and water allocation scheme of"Four Determinations"are obtained.The results show that under the constraints of total water use of 7.327 billion m3 and water consumption of 4.15 billion m3 in the whole region,the"Four Determinations"scale that meets the overall well-off level is 7.5 million people,548.1 billion yuan GDP,0.847 million hm2 irrigation area and 791 km2 built-up area.The comprehensive evaluation shows that the"water dominates development"scheme meets the requirements of high quality,and has higher regional balance and water fairness than the current situation.The relationship between objectives of efficiency and equity is an-alyzed based on scenarios with different preferences,and the results show the significant impacts of settings of objec-tives and restraints,hence the comprehensive evaluation of the scenarios is necessary.By comparing the current situa-tion with the objectives of the"water dominates development"plan,the control countermeasures to guide the layout of regional economic and social development are proposed,which could be referential for relevant decision-making.

water dominates developmentmulti-objective optimizationdemand of rigiditywater allocationregional balance

游进军、贾玲、王彦兵、杨朝晖、汪林、薛志春

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中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

宁夏回族自治区水利调度中心,宁夏银川 750002

北京市水科学技术研究院,北京 100044

四水四定 多目标协调优化 刚性需求 水资源配置 区域均衡

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家重点研发计划国家重点研发计划中国工程院院地合作重大项目

52079143522090422023YFF13042022018YFC04077052022NXZD1

2024

10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230433

水利学报
中国水利学会

水利学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.778
ISSN：0559-9350
年,卷(期)：2024.55(3)
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