Estimation.of breach parameters and longevity of landslide dam
The significant floods formed by the breaking of landslide dams seriously threaten people's lives,social stability,and ecological environment in the affected areas downstream.It is an urgent need to improve the accuracy of landslide dam failure parameters and longevity prediction for emergency treatment.Based on the geographical and statistical analysis of the 1957 group of landslide dam cases around the world,the main influencing factors of the breach parameters were determined.The prediction models of peak outflow,breach size,and breaching duration were established by nonlinear regression method,which all have a high degree of fitting.The factors'sensitivity to breach parameters was analyzed quantitatively,and the result indicates that the dam height is the most essential factor for dam break.Furthermore,various independent variables and algorithms are used to establish the prediction models of the duration of infilling,overflowing,and breaching stages,respectively.Finally,the corre-sponding fusion models were proposed by using the weighted fusion method.The results can provide a reference for quantitative evaluation of the parameters of the dam failure process and longevity prediction.
landslide dambreach parameterlongevity analysisprediction model
万方数据
维普
