Evaluation of flood resource utilization potential based on identification model for inflow flood
Evaluation of flood resource utilization potential is a prerequisite for the rational allocation of water re-sources and storage capacity in a watershed.In response to the problem of uneven spatiotemporal distribution of wa-ter resources in China,an inflow flood identification model was established based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,improved peak-over threshold method,and time-varying parameters with Poisson distribution model.It aims to a-chieve the transformation of inconsistency runoff time series to"independent identical distribution"samples,and to identify and deduce representative flood hydrograph of inflow flood.An evaluation method of flood resources utiliza-tion potential in reservoir groups was proposed based on constraints such as the comprehensive regulation and storage capacity of the watershed and water demand.It aims to identify key constraints,define reserved flood control stor-age capacity and water level floating space to balance flood control and benefit functions.The Jinxia Four Reser-voirs,which consist of Wudongde,Baihetan,Xiangjiaba,and Xiluodu cascaded reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River,were used as a case study.The results show that 1998 and 2002 are the consistency change points of the runoff series from June to November at Xiangjiaba Hydrological Station.The main type of inflow flood is short-fat,and the 3-day flood volume is a joint operation decision characteristic parameter that should be given more priority than the flood peak.Jinxia Four Reservoirs are constrained by storage capacity,when encountering floods with a design standard of once-in-a-century or below,the utilization potential of flood resources is 3.727 billion cubic meters.It is recommended to continuously optimize the storage capacity by raising the water level to 952.26 m,806.77 m,576.31 m,and 373.99 m in sequence of Jinxia Four Reservoirs.This work aims to provide reference for the optimal allocation of water resources and storage capacity in the watershed.
evaluation of flood resource utilization potentialidentification of inflow floodimproved peak-over threshold methodreserve flood control storage capacityjoint operation of reservoir group
万方数据
维普
