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人类活动影响下的中国各大流域水文干旱状态演变规律

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受气候变化和人类活动的叠加影响,广发的极端干旱事件成为制约社会发展和威胁生态安全的关键因素.为明晰气候变化和人类活动对水文干旱演变进程的影响,本研究耦合能够细化人类活动影响的PCR-GLOBWB模型和SRI-RRV框架,定量评估了人类活动对中国各大流域水文干旱演变进程及干旱状态影响的时空差异性.结果表明:在空间层面,人类活动普遍加剧(缓解)中国北方流域(南方)的水文干旱;在时间层面,1990年之前的人类活动使得全国各大流域干旱面积呈扩张态势,而在此之后减少了南方流域的受旱面积;在叠加人类活动影响后,黄河、淮河和海河流域的干旱状态等级发生明显恶化,而长江、珠江和东南流域的SRI-RRV等级得到了有效改善.流域间不同的水资源管理方式、水利设施以及农业模式是造成中国水文干旱呈现区域性差异的主要原因.
Evolutionary law of hydrological and drought states in large basins of China under the influence of human activities
Due to the compounded impact of climate change and human activities,the occurrence of extreme drought events poses a key constraint to societal development and threatens ecological security.Quantifying the in-fluence of human activities on the hydrological drought evolution process is crucial for formulating rational water re-source allocation strategies and mitigating the impacts of drought on both human society and ecosystems.To address this,our study coupled the PCR-GLOBWB model,which captures the nuanced effects of human activities,with the SRI-RRV framework.This coupling enabled a quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal variations in the impact of human activities on the hydrological drought evolution process and drought conditions in major river basins across the country.The results indicate that human activities generally exacerbate(alleviate)hydrological drought in the northern(southern)regions of China.Human activities have intensified the expansion of nationwide drought areas before 1990,but have reduced drought-affected areas in southern regions after 1990.Taking into account human influence,the drought severity in the Yellow River,Huaihe River,and Haihe River basins has significant-ly worsened,while the SRI-RRV grades in the Yangtze River,Pearl River,and southeastern basins have im-proved.This study highlights the regional disparities in the impact of human activities on hydrological drought,em-phasizing the need for tailored water resource management measures based on the characteristics of different river basins to alleviate the losses caused by drought.

PCR-GLOBWB hydrological modelhuman activitieshydrological droughtRRV framework

吴凡、杨肖丽、任立良、崔周宇

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河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京 210098

河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

PCR-GLOBWB水文模型 人类活动 水文干旱 RRV框架

2024

水利学报
中国水利学会

水利学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.778
ISSN:0559-9350
年,卷(期):2024.55(12)