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我国饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征及影响因素分析

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文章旨在探究我国饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征及其影响因素.选取2005-2021年我国31个省份的月度面板数据,使用空间自相关和冷热点分析法深入探究饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征,进一步通过泰尔指数与空间杜宾模型深入剖析其驱动因素.结果显示,饲料粮供给冷点与热点区域均呈现集中态势,且其局部空间关联性较为明显.饲料粮供给空间分布格局检验结果表明,北部沿海地区多为"低-低"型区域聚集区,东北、东南沿海与西南地区多为"高-高"型区域聚集区.泰尔指数与结构性原因分析显示,饲料粮供给水平呈现明显正向空间溢出效应,其中组内差异是区际差异的关键因素.空间杜宾模型结果表明,土地生产率、交通运输水平、粮食生产机械投入和饲料粮加工水平是饲料粮供给水平的重要影响因素.
Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors analysis of regional disparities in feed grain supply in China
The article aims to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of regional disparities in feed grain supply in China.Monthly panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021 were selected,and spatial autocorrelation and hot-cold spot analysis were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional disparities in feed grain supply.Furthermore,the Theil index and spatial Durbin model were utilized to analyze the driving factors in depth.The results show that both cold spots and hot spots in the feed grain supply exhibit a concentrated trend,and their local spatial correlations were significant.The spatial distribution pattern of feed grain supply reveals that the northern coastal areas were mostly'low-low'aggregation zones,while the northeast,southeast coastal,and southwest regions were mostly'high-high'aggregation zones.The Theil index and structural reasons analysis indicated a clear positive spatial spillover effect in feed grain supply,with intra-group differences being a key factor in regional disparities.The spatial Durbin model results demonstrate that the land productivity,transportation level,grain production machinery input,and feed grain processing level are crucial influencing factors for the feed grain supply.

feed grain supplyland productivityfeed grain processing levelhot-cold spot analysis

刘潇潇

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浙江商业职业技术学院,浙江 杭州 310053

饲料粮供给 土地生产率 饲料粮加工水平 冷热点分析

2020年度高校国内访问学者教师专业发展项目2021年浙江省科技厅软科学研究计划(重点项目)

FX20200962021C25045

2024

饲料研究
北京市营养源研究所

饲料研究

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.391
ISSN:1002-2813
年,卷(期):2024.47(2)
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