Study on impact of soybean meal raw material import price on price fluctuation of feed industry chain
Experimentally selecting the import prices of soybean meal raw materials from January 2017 to February 2022,spanning a total of 62 monthly periods,along with the prices of the feed industry chain as samples,this study empirically investigates the impact of soybean meal raw material import price shocks on the volatility of feed industry chain prices by constructing a VAR model.The Granger causality effect indicates that the impact of soybean meal raw material import price shocks on the volatility of feed industry chain prices has a lag effect.The impulse response suggests that when the soybean meal raw material import price experiences a positive shock of one standard deviation,the feed industry chain prices will show a 0.001 3 response starting from the second period and exhibit a sustained upward trend,reaching its peak in the 10th period.The results of the shock cycle test reveal that changes in soybean meal raw material import prices have a significantly positive impact on subsequent fluctuations in feed industry chain prices,indicating that soybean meal raw material import price shocks play a driving role in the upward movement of feed industry chain prices.Variance decomposition data results indicate that during the period of volatility in feed industry chain prices,the feed industry chain prices themselves play a dominant role,with the contribution rate showing a trend of first declining and then rising.At the same time,the impact of soybean meal raw material import price shocks on the volatility of feed industry chain prices exhibits a certain lag period,becoming evident from the third period and peaking in the 9th period,followed by a downward trend.In the paper,the recommendations are made to enhance technical support for industry cultivation,rational planning of feed planting areas,and optimization of the feed industry's supply security mechanism,providing valuable reference for stabilizing feed industry prices.
soybean meal raw material import price impactfeed industry chain price fluctuationmodern feed industry
万方数据
维普
