我国饲料粮价格非对称性波动特征及其成因分析
Asymmetric volatility characteristics and causes analysis of feed grain prices in China
韩田莉1
作者信息
- 1. 郑州工商学院财税学院,河南郑州 450000
- 折叠
摘要
文章基于我国30个省(市、自治区)饲料粮价格数据,采用TGARCH模型实证检验我国各地区饲料粮价格非对称性波动特征及其成因.结果表明,仅有7个省份饲料粮价格存在非对称波动,说明我国饲料粮价格波动不是普遍规律,而是个体属性;我国饲料粮价格非对称性特征具有区域异质性,黑龙江、吉林、河南和内蒙古的饲料粮价格存在负向非对称性波动,江苏、山东和广东的饲料粮价格存在正向非对称性波动;政策变动、自然灾害、技术等不规则因素变动是引发饲料粮价格非对称性波动的主要原因.因此,相关主体应提高饲料粮价格变动信息判断能力,采取差异化饲料粮价格调控措施,强化市场调控力度,有效调控饲料粮价格波动.
Abstract
Based on feed grain price data from 30 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China,this article empirically tests the asymmetric volatility characteristics and their causes using the TGARCH model.The results indicate that asymmetric volatility exists in the feed grain prices of only seven provinces,suggesting that the volatility of feed grain prices in China is not a universal phenomenon but rather an individual attribute.The asymmetric characteristics of feed grain prices in China exhibit regional heterogeneity,with negative asymmetric volatility observed in Heilongjiang,Jilin,He'nan,and Inner Mongolia,while positive asymmetric volatility is found in Jiangsu,Shandong,and Guangdong.Irregular factors such as policy changes,natural disasters,and technological variations are identified as the main causes of asymmetric volatility in feed grain prices.In light of this,relevant stakeholders should enhance their ability to assess feed grain price fluctuations,implement differentiated feed grain price regulation measures,strengthen market regulation efforts,and effectively control the volatility of feed grain prices.
关键词
饲料粮/价格波动/正向非对称性波动/负向非对称性波动/TGARCH模型Key words
feed grain/price volatility/positive asymmetric volatility/negative asymmetric volatility/TGARCH model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
河南省社科联调研课题(SKL-2019-2827)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据