Asymmetric volatility characteristics and causes analysis of feed grain prices in China
Based on feed grain price data from 30 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China,this article empirically tests the asymmetric volatility characteristics and their causes using the TGARCH model.The results indicate that asymmetric volatility exists in the feed grain prices of only seven provinces,suggesting that the volatility of feed grain prices in China is not a universal phenomenon but rather an individual attribute.The asymmetric characteristics of feed grain prices in China exhibit regional heterogeneity,with negative asymmetric volatility observed in Heilongjiang,Jilin,He'nan,and Inner Mongolia,while positive asymmetric volatility is found in Jiangsu,Shandong,and Guangdong.Irregular factors such as policy changes,natural disasters,and technological variations are identified as the main causes of asymmetric volatility in feed grain prices.In light of this,relevant stakeholders should enhance their ability to assess feed grain price fluctuations,implement differentiated feed grain price regulation measures,strengthen market regulation efforts,and effectively control the volatility of feed grain prices.
feed grainprice volatilitypositive asymmetric volatilitynegative asymmetric volatilityTGARCH model
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