Study on asymmetry and persistence of feed raw material price fluctuation in China-An empirical analysis based on Markov state transition autoregressive model
The paper selects the price index of wheat,corn and soybean from January 2002 to April 2022 in feed industry information network,and analyzes the asymmetry and persistence of feed raw material price fluctuation in China using the Markov regional system transformation model.The results showed that the fluctuation risk and mutual transfer of feed raw material prices in different stages in China were asymmetric,that is,the fluctuation risk of wheat price,corn price,and soybean price in the falling stage was greater than that in the rising stage.There is a big gap between the average duration and duration probability of wheat price in each stage in China.In the average duration,compared with the'falling stage',the duration of corn and soybean prices in the'rising stage'is obviously higher,while the duration of wheat prices is opposite.From the analysis of persistence probability,the persistence probability of wheat in'sliding stage'is the highest,and that of corn in'rising stage'is the highest,which is similar to the conclusion of average duration.The research has important reference value for stabilizing the price of feed raw materials and promoting the sustainable development of feed raw materials industry.
price fluctuationfeed raw materialsanimal husbandryasymmetrysustainability
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