Asymmetric fluctuation characteristics and causal analysis of poultry market prices in China
This paper takes the monthly prices of meat poultry in 30 provinces(city and municipality)of China as the research object,and empirically studies the asymmetric fluctuation characteristics of poultry market prices using the TGARCH model.The results show that the poultry prices in 12 provinces(city and municipality)have asymmetric fluctuation characteristics,indicating that the asymmetric fluctuation characteristics of poultry market prices in China are not universal.There are significant regional differences in the asymmetric fluctuation characteristics of meat poultry market prices in China.Hebei,Fujian,Hainan,Shanxi,Henan,Sichuan,and Gansu exhibit negative asymmetric fluctuation characteristics,while Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui,Jiangxi,and Liaoning exhibit positive asymmetric fluctuation characteristics;the main factors causing the asymmetric fluctuation of meat poultry market prices include production costs,diseases,and market changes.Based on this,it is necessary to maintain the order of the poultry meat market,pay attention to the correlation of poultry market prices;build an information platform to improve the comprehensive benefits of the poultry industry,improve production and breeding supporting facilities,enhance the level of safe epidemic prevention,and achieve effective control of price fluctuations in the poultry market by multiple entities.
market prices for poultryasymmetric fluctuationsTGARCH model
万方数据
维普
