Study on influence of corn futures price fluctuation on breeding cost of laying hens
Using the monthly panel data of 31 provinces in China from January 2020 to September 2023,the VAR model and SVAR model were used to empirically investigate the impact of corn futures price fluctuation on the breeding cost of laying hens with the help of impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results showed that the cost of raising laying hens in China will undergo cyclical changes due to the lag effect of corn futures price fluctuations.The impulse response function showed that when the price fluctuation of corn futures was positively impacted by one standard deviation,the breeding cost of laying hens produced a response of 0.001 3 in the second period,and showed a trend of gradual increase.After reaching the maximum value of 0.004 2 in the 18th period,the influence effect began to gradually decline,and completely disappeared in the 24th period.The variance decomposition results showed that the contribution rate of layer breeding cost to corn futures price fluctuation showed a lag effect,which began to appear in the third period,reached the peak in the ninth period,and then began to decrease,and still had a contribution rate of 7.413 5%in the 24th period.The study indicates that corn futures price fluctuations have a positive impact on the breeding cost of laying hens,so we need to closely monitor the changes in agricultural product prices to consolidate the foundation of building a strong agricultural country.
corn futures price fluctuationbreeding cost of laying hensgranger causality effectimpulse response function
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
