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中美农产品期货市场联动性分析

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随着全球经济贸易日益紧密,我国农产品价格越来越多的受到国际经济因素影响,作为世界上农产品消费量和贸易量居首位的农业大国,是否掌握农产品市场中的话语权以及我国在国际农产品市场中所维持的关系将会对国内农产品价格将起到举足轻重的作用。本文以1405号黄大豆合约为例,简单阐述中美农产品期货市场的发展及功能,通过协整分析、格兰杰检验实证分析得出中美黄大豆期货市场存在长期均衡关系,美国大豆期货价格在一定程度上影响我国大豆期货价格,而我国大豆期货价格对美国大豆期货价格影响甚微。
with the link of global economy and trade is more and more closely,the agricultural products price of our country is more and more influenced by international economic factors. The agricultural products’consumption and trade of our country ranks first in the world,so if master the discourse power of agricultural products and the relation of our country to maintain in the international agricultural product market will play a decisive role on the domestic prices of agricultural products. This paper make 1405 yellow soybean as an example, first simply elaborated the development and function of American and Chinese agricultural products futures market,then through co-integration analysis, Granger test empirical analysis indicates that there is a long -term equilibrium relationship between soybean futures in China and the United States, the America soybean futures have an influence on Chinese soybean futures market to some extent ,but the price of soybean futures in china has little influence on American soybean futures price.

Agricultural Products FuturesCo-integration analysisGranger Test

杨霞、罗万金、陈黎涛

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人民银行定西市中心支行

农产品期货 协整分析 格兰杰检验

2015

商品与质量·学术观察
中国保护消费者基金会

商品与质量·学术观察

影响因子:0.071
ISSN:1006-656X
年,卷(期):2015.(3)
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