Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on the PLSR-FLUS-MarKov Model:A Case Study of Lijiang River Basin
Ecosystem service value assessment can effectively identify regional habitat quality,opti-mize biodiversity conservation areas,calculate ecological compensation amounts and,to some extent,cultivate human awareness of the"value of natural resources",thereby promoting the construction of a regional ecological civilization.In this study,Lijiang River was selected as a case study,and we simulated the land use pattern and predicted the ecosystem service values of the Lijiang River basin in 2030 under three development scenarios that assumed differing priorities for ecological preserva-tion and tourism.We also analyzed the impact of land use change on ecosystem service value.The study was based on the data from remote sensing images for the Lijiang River basin in 2010 and 2020.Topographic and geomorphic features,climate,tourism,and related socio-economic factors were selected as drivers of land use change for model fitting,revision and validation.The revised PLSR-FLUS-MarKov model,and the equivalent factor method were then used to simulate land use changes and predict ecosystem service value in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,eco-logical priority,tourism priority.Results show that:(1)The PLSR-FLUS-MarKov model accurately portrayed the dynamic changes of land use in the watershed,with a simulation accuracy of 83.57％.(2)Land-use change areas in the watershed was concentrated in the Guilin City district,Xing'an County and Yangshuo County,with arable and forest lands converted to construction land and inter-conversion between arable land and forest land.(3)The ecosystem service values in the watershed in 2030 trended downward.The ecosystem service value was the highest under the scenario of ecologi-cal priority,followed by tourism priority and natural development,with respective values of 22.561,22.291 and 21.807 billion yuan,decreases of 148,418 and 902 million yuan compared to 2020.The ecosystem service values were higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest,and the rate of de-cline decreased after implementing the ecological priority strategy.Forest land contributed most to the ecosystem service value in Lijiang River basin,accounting for more than 80％of the total value,fol-lowed by arable land and surface water.Our study provides scientific guidance for the construction of a world-class tourism city,Guilin City,and managing regional ecosystem health.
land use changeecosystem service valuePLSR-FLUS-MarKov modelmulti-scenario simulationLijiang River basin
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