Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model
The ecological footprint is an important way to analyze the regional sustainable development.In the present study,the ecological footprint of Changsha City from 1996 to 2008 was calculated and analyzed by means of the ecological footprint model,while the trend of its development was predicted using the grey model.The results show that in 1996-2008,the ecological footprint of Changsha per capita increased from 1.232 6 hm2 to 1.872 2 hm2,the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.391 8 hm2 to 0.355 0 hm2,while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.840 8 hm2 in 1996 to 1.517 2 hm2 in 2008,indicating the growing trend.Likewise,according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2011 to 2020,the ecological deficit of the study area in 2020 will increase up to 2.736 3 hm2,suggesting that Changsha will be in the state of unsustainable development.The overload of regional ecological state required local governments to take effective measures to develop the ecological civilization of the ecological economy construction,to achieve the coordinated development of resource environment and regional economy.
ecological footprintecological carrying capacityecological deficitgray modelChangsha City
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
