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1951-2010年汉中市气温变化特征分析

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气温变化特征是全球气候变化研究中的一个至关重要的问题.我国地域辽阔,受地形及季风影响,各地区气温变化及各季节气温变化趋势各异.采用1951-2010年逐日及年平均气温数据作为基础资料,运用气候倾向率、滑动平均法、MK趋势检验和突变分析方法对汉中市年均气温和各季节气温的变化特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)汉中市近60年来年平均气温呈上升趋势,气温倾向率为0.18℃/10 a,并经历冷暖两个时期,20世纪90年代中期之前为偏冷期,之后为偏暖期;(2)年平均气温的年代际变化表现出"平缓上升—下降—显著上升"的趋势,且存在明显的突变点,突变时间为1999年,突变后年平均气温比突变前高0.9℃;(3)汉中市四季平均气温在20世纪90年代开始明显增温,且高于各季节平均气温.冬春两季增温明显,秋季次之,夏季最小,但增温速率均小于全国同期水平;(4)冬春两季平均气温在近60年间存在明显的突变点,突变时间分别为1999年和1997年,但夏秋两季没有出现明显的突变.
Characteristics of Air Temperature in Hanzhong City from 1951 to 2010
Air temperature change is one of important issues in the research of global climate change.The trend of annual and seasonal air temperature in different regions of China is various due to the influence of terrain and monsoon.Using the daily and annual average temperature from 1951 to 2010 as the basic data with the climate trend rate, the moving average method, and the M-K trend test and mutation analysis method, we analyzed the characteristics of the annual and seasons air temperature in Hanzhong City.The results showed that: (1) the average annual air temperature of Hanzhong City in nearly 60 years had the increasing trend, and the temperature tendency rate was 0.18℃/10 a, it experienced two periods: the cold stage before the mid-1990s is and warm stage after mid-1990s;(2) the decadal variability of annual average temperature displayed the ‘gently increasing-decreasing-significantly increasing’ trend, the temperature had the obvious mutation with the mutation time in 1999, the annual average temperature after mutation was 0.9℃ higher than that before mutation;(3) the average air temperature of the four seasons was obvious increasing since the 1990s, and the air temperature after 1990s was higher than the average temperatures of all seasons.The increasing rate of air temperature was greater in spring and winter than in autumn, and then in summer,however, it was less than the same period level in China;(4) the average air temperature of winter and spring in nearly 60 years had the obvious mutation with the mutation times in 1999 and 1997, respectively,however, it was not obvious mutation in summer and autumn.

air temperaturetrend analysismutation analysisHanzhong City

王志杰、苏嫄

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贵州大学生命科学学院,贵阳550025

陕西理工学院历史文化与旅游学院秦岭与蜀道地理研究所,陕西汉中723000

陕西理工学院文学院,陕西汉中723000

气温 趋势分析 突变分析 汉中市

陕西理工学院科研计划资助项目

SLGKYQD2-32

2016

水土保持研究
中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所

水土保持研究

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.194
ISSN:1005-3409
年,卷(期):2016.23(1)
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