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内蒙大兴安岭林区年降水量变化特征及周期分析

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利用内蒙古大兴安岭林区11个气象站1971-2010年降水观测资料,采用—元线性回归、累积距平法、曼肯德尔检验(Mann-Kendall)法和Morlet小波分析方法对内蒙古大兴安岭林区近40年年降水量变化进行了分析,以揭示该地区在气候变暖大背景下年降水量的变化特征.结果表明:1971-2010年内蒙古大兴安岭林区年降水量整体在波动中呈微弱下降的趋势,倾向率为-7.4 mm/10 a,降水量年际变化幅度较大,降水气候倾向率具有很强的区域特点,整体经历了丰—枯—丰枯的变化过程;结合累积距平分析与曼—肯德尔检验(Mann-Kendall)法两种方法判断出降水量发生突变的大致时间为1975-1979年与1999年;Morlet小波分析结果表明,近40年内蒙古大兴安岭林区年降水量包含多个不同时间尺度的周期,其中27a左右的周期振荡最为强烈,对降水作用最为显著,且在2014-2020年可能出现降水偏多期.
Spatiotemporal Distribution and Periodicity of Annual Precipitation in Daxing'anling Forest Region of Inner Mongolia
Based on the observational data of precipitation in 11 meteorological stations from 1951 to 2010 in forest region of Inner Mongolia Daxing'anling,we used a linear regression,accumulative anomaly method,Mann Kendall test (Mann-Kendall) method and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze the annual precipitation changes in forest region of Inner Mongolia Daxing'anling in recent 40 years and to reveal the variation characteristics of annual precipitation under the climate warming background.The results showed as follows:precipitation in forest region of Inner Mongolia Daxing'anling showed a slight downward with fluctuation,the trend tendency rate was-7.4 mm/decade,inter annual variation precipitation was significant,precipitation of climate trend rate had very obvious regional features,which experienced the wet dry wet dry process;the time of precipitation mutation occurred roughly from 1975 to 1979 and in 1999 based on the cumulative distance average analysis and Mann Kendall (Mann-Kendall) test method.Morlet wavelet analysis results showed that annual precipitation in recent 40 years in Daxing'anling forest region of Inner Mongolia contained a number of periods with different time scales,the 27-year periodic oscillation was the strongest,and had the most significant effect on precipitation,and high precipitation period will occur in the years 2014 to 2020.

Daxing'anling of Inner Mongoliaforest regionprecipitationMorlet wavelet analysis

边玉明、代海燕、王冰、张健、巴特、张秋良

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内蒙古农业大学林学院,呼和浩特010010

内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,呼和浩特010051

兴安盟林业科学研究所,内蒙古兴安盟137400

内蒙古大兴安岭 林区 降水 Morlet小波分析

中国科学院野外站联盟项目

KFJ-SW-YW026

2017

水土保持研究
中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所

水土保持研究

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.194
ISSN:1005-3409
年,卷(期):2017.24(3)
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