Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of ecological vulnerability in the FAST Tranquility Zone
[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological vulnerability in the FAST Tranquility Zone from 2000 to 2020,and to provide scientific references for the maintenance of ecological security in this region.[Methods]Based on the ecological baseline characteristics of the FAST Tranquility Zone,an ecological vulnerability assessment system was established from the perspectives of sensitivity-recovery-pressure.The spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability and future preset scenarios from 2000 to 2020 in the FAST Tranquility Zone were quantitatively analyzed using the AHP-Entropy Weight method and GIS technology.[Results](1)The vulnerability in the study area was primarily moderate,with mild,moderate,and severe vulnerable areas accounting for approximately 75％,and slightly and extremely vulnerable areas accounting for about 25％.(2)Over the 20-year period,the ecological vulnerability of the study area had decreased overall,with high-intensity vulnerable areas mainly transforming to lower severity levels.There was a slight increase in ecological vulnerability in the first decade,followed by a significant decrease in the second decade,indicating an overall improving trend in the ecological environment of the area.(3)With respect to the dynamic changes in the FAST concentric zones(core area,intermediate area,and remote area),the ecology of the core area had been considerably improved,with the proportion of the deteriorated area decreasing from 19.57％in the first decade to 7.12％in the second decade.The areas of stability and slight improvement had increased,from 79.88％in the first decade to 92.50％.The intermediate area and remote area showed a trend towards stabilization,with the proportion of stable and slightly improved areas in the intermediate area increasing from 68.36％to 87.10％,and the proportion of stable areas in the remote area increasing from 40.78％to 59.50％,although there were risks of deterioration in some parts of the remote area.(4)Based on the simulation of ecological priority protection and rural revitalization needs,the overall ecological vulnerability index of the FAST Tranquility Zone was projected to decrease by 5.91％and 2.22％,respectively,by 2030.The former scenario showed better ecological protection effects,while the latter more effectively balanced ecological conservation with rural development needs.Considering both,it was recommended to prioritize the rural revitalization development model.[Conclusion]During the study period,the ecological vulnerability of the FAST Tranquility Zone had decreased overall,with the core area showing significant ecological improvement,and the intermediate and remote areas showing a slow but overall positive ecological transition in the latter decade compared to the first.
ecological vulnerabilityspatial and temporal evolutionscenario simulationsFAST Tranquility Zonecircle change
万方数据
维普
