A correlation of pine wood nematode dispersal rate with human activities—a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
The pine wood nematode is a major quarantine pest in China,in addition to the vector insect Monochamus alternatus Hope,and humans play an important role in the proliferation and dispersal of these pests.This study was carried out in a concentrated pinewood nematode area of the Three Gorges reservoir.The landscape of region dominated by Pinus massoniana was analyzed based on the intensity of the effect of humans for diffusion processes,which are the key factors to the dispersal of the pinewood nematode,in an attempt to reveal dispersal mechanisms.The results showed the number of epidemic towns increased,but the incidence rate of the pinewood nematode was controlled.For P.massoniana in epidemic or non-epidemic towns,the largest aggregation index was 98.6406 in Dadukou,which is a non-epidemic town;the largest division index was 0.9318 in Zigui,which is a non-epidemic town;and the results of the variance analysis showed that there was no correlation between the P.massoniana distribution pattern and the pinewood nematode.We further studied the correlation between humans and the pinewood nematode,and the results showed the incidence rate was correlated with the density of road networks and the total population,and had little correlation with the GDP or rotation volume of goods transport.In Yichang,a factorial analysis showed that the correlation coefficient of the incidence rate and density of the road network was 0.985,and the correlation coefficient of the rate and total population was 0.866.In Chongqing,a factorial analysis showed that the correlation coefficient of the rate and density of the road network was 0.924,the correlation coefficient of the rate and total population was 0.999.Then,in view of the density of the road network and total population,it was predicted that the incident rate of the pinewood nematode in Yichang will increase during the next decade as the density of the road network and total population increases,with R2 values of 0.919 and 0.637,respectively.Results from Chongqing were consistent with R2 values of 0.976 and 0.992,respectively.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
