Predicting potential suitable habitats of Kandelia obovata in China under future climatic scenarios based on MaxEnt model
Kandelia obovata is a rare woody plant that is naturally distributed in the silt mudflats of southern tropical and subtropical intertidal zones.K.obovata forms a mangrove habitat and plays a vital role in maintaining the balance of the coastal ecosystem and the biodiversity of the wetlands.Global climate change has affected the geographical distribution of K.obovata.The evolution of the northern boundary of the distribution of K.obovata has been a hot topic in mangrove research.Based on the MaxEnt model,we screened 141 existing K.obovata distribution sites.Combining 14 terrestrial climate variables and two marine surface environmental factors,we simulated the potentially suitable distribution area of K.obovata using different carbon emission scenarios.The main environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of K.obovata were analysed and revealed the evolutionary trend of its distribution along the northern boundary of mainland China.According to the model results,the simulated potential distribution coincided well with the existing distribution area,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value was 0.990.The regression validation of the generalised additive model showed that the main environmental variables were significantly correlated with the habitat suitability index of K.obovata,and the overall variance interpretation rate was 94.7％(R2=0.915),indicating that the prediction results of the MaxEnt model were reliable.Among them,the average sea surface water temperature(temperature),annual mean temperature(bio_01),isothermality(bio_03),the maximum temperature of the warmest month(bio_05)and precipitation during the warmest quarter(bio_18)were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of K.obovata.The environmental conditions were conducive to the development and diffusion of the population when bio 03 was 23.43-33.99,bio_05＞31.7℃ bio_18＞740.61 mm and temperature＞24.9℃.According to the model,the potential distribution area of K.obovata will change in Zhejiang and Jiangsu in the middle and end of this century,with the most significant changes in the northern boundary of the natural distribution area.Under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs2.6,4.5,8.5),the suitable area for K.obovata migrated northward.In contrast,a suitable area for K.obovata was found near the mouth of the Yangtze River and as far as the coast of Jiangsu Province,which provides a theoretical basis for ecosystem restoration and increases the carbon sink reserve by using the K.obovata mangroves in these areas.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
