System dynamics-based analysis of the potential and ecological network characteristics of Beijing's reclaimed water system
Given the potential risks of reclaimed water usage,the uncertain relationship between reclaimed water usage and the stability of the network of reclaimed water system should be explored.Based on the system dynamics approach and the factors affecting the supply,demand and usage of reclaimed water from 2015 to 2020,this study constructed a model for reclaimed water supply and demand in Beijing.We characterized the changes in reclaimed water supply and demand from 2020 to 2050,and identified the water use network changes between the domestic,industrial and environmental sectors under seven scenarios of industrial reclaimed water use.Based on ecological network analysis method,the system metabolic efficiency,redundancy and sectoral interaction characteristics of the reclaimed water network were further examined,revealing the level of robustness and reciprocity in reclaimed water system.The results showed that:(1)there was less than 10％discrepancy between the simulated and actual values of the reclaimed water system.The reclaimed water system dynamics model offered precise feedback on the causal relationship between factors related to reclaimed water.The growth rate of reclaimed water supply(2.55％)in Beijing from 2015 to 2050 was much lower than the growth rate of reclaimed water demand(2.82％).(2)The average robustness index exhibited a trend of"first rising then declining"under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050.(3)The average robustness index reached a maximum of 0.28 when the industrial reclaimed water ratio was 0.45.At this point,a large amount of reclaimed water entered the industrial sector,creating a dependency on it and greatly reducing the pressure associated with industrial water consumption.This study clarified the industrial reclaimed water potential by combining system dynamics and ecological networks and provided a reference for water conservation in the industrial sector in Beijing.
reclaimed water usereclaimed water use potentialreclaimed water networkindustrial reclaimed water
万方数据
维普
