首页|黄星蓟在我国的适生性分析及风险评估

黄星蓟在我国的适生性分析及风险评估

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[目的]黄星蓟是一种极具危险性的杂草,在美国和澳大利亚等地区被列为有毒有害杂草并加以控制.目前在我国新疆等局部区域,已发现有黄星蓟的定殖,且呈蔓延危害加剧的趋势.对黄星蓟进行适生性分析及风险评估,可为该有害生物的预警防控提供理论依据.[方法]利用MaxEnt模型对黄星蓟在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并采用多指标赋值运算,对其入侵的风险进行定量分析.[结果]黄星蓟在我国的潜在适生区达 32.96%,其中高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区的面积分别为 11.21 万、34.16万、272.28 万km2.其危险性综合评估风险值R为 2.01,为高度危险.[结论]我国很多区域均属于黄星蓟的适生区,需要高度重视,其预测结果为建立黄星蓟长效预警与防控机制提供必要的理论基础.
Adaptability analysis and risk assessment of Centaurea solstitialis in China
[Aim]Centaurea solstitialis L.is a very dangerous weed that is classified and controlled as a noxious weed in areas such as the United States and Australia.At present,the colonization of C.solstitialis has been found in Xinjiang which shows a tendency to spread.The purpose of this study is to provide theoretical basis for early warning and control by Adaptability analysis and risk as-sessment of C.solstitialis in China.[Method]MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of C.solstitialis in China,and multi-index assignment was used to to conduct quantitative analysis for the risk of invasion.[Result]The potential habitat area of C.solstitialis in China reached 32.96%,of which the areas of high,medium and low habitat were 11.21×104 km2,34.16×104 km2 and 272.28×104 km2,respectively.The comprehensive risk assessment value of this weed was 2.01,belongs to high-ly dangerous.[Conclusion]C.solstitialis could occur at many areas of our country.The results provide the necessary theoretical ba-sis for establishing a long-term early warning and control mechanism of C.solstitialis.

Centaurea solstitialispotential geographic distributionMaxEntrisk assessment

袁淑珍、龙阳、李凯兵、徐晗、虞赟、袁俊杰

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二连海关技术中心,内蒙古 二连浩特 012600

湛江海关技术中心,广东 湛江 524000

佛山海关,广东 佛山 528000

中国检验检疫科学研究院,北京 100000

福州海关技术中心,福建 福州 350003

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黄星蓟 潜在适生区 MaxEnt 风险评估

海关总署科研项目

2022HK120

2024

生物安全学报
中国植物保护学会 福建省昆虫学会

生物安全学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.61
ISSN:2095-1787
年,卷(期):2024.33(3)
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