Construction and Evaluation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Risk of Microvascular Complications in Elderly Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of microvascular complications(MC)in elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)patients,and to construct and evaluate the predictive efficacy of the nomogram prediction model.Methods:317 T2DM patients were divided into non-occurrence group(n=221)and occurrence group(n=96)according to whether MC occurred.The influencing fac-tors was analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression models,a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the influencing factors.The predictive value was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results:Older age,longer course of disease,High fasting blood glucose(FPG),high glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c),low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),high low-den-sity lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)levels were independent risk factors for MC in elderly T2DM patients(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of age,course of disease,FPG,HbA1c,HDL-C,LDL-C and nomogram prediction model were 0.799,0.769,0.649,0.704,0.678,0.705 and 0.950 respectively.Conclusion:The MC occurs in elderly T2DM patients are closely relate to age,course of disease,FPG,HbA1c,HDL-C and LDL-C.The nomogram prediction model based on the above influencing factors can effectively predict the risk of MC in elderly T2DM patients.
Type 2 diabetes mellitusElderlyMicrovascular complicationsInfluencing factorsPredictive value
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