摘要
目的:探讨老年2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者微血管并发症(MC)发生的影响因素,构建并评价列线图预测模型的预测效能.方法:317例T2DM患者根据是否发生MC分为未发生组(n=221)和发生组(n=96).采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析影响因素,基于影响因素构建列线图预测模型.采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析预测价值.结果:年龄偏大、病程长、高空腹血糖(FPG)、高糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、低高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)水平为老年T2DM患者发生MC的独立危险因素(P＜0.05).年龄、病程、FPG、HbA1c、HDL-C、LDL-C及列线图预测模型的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.799、0.769、0.649、0.704、0.678、0.705、0.950.结论:老年T2DM发生MC与年龄、病程、FPG、HbA1c、HDL-C、LDL-C密切相关.基于上述影响因素构建的列线图预测模型可以有效预测老年T2DM患者发生MC的风险.
Abstract
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of microvascular complications(MC)in elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)patients,and to construct and evaluate the predictive efficacy of the nomogram prediction model.Methods:317 T2DM patients were divided into non-occurrence group(n=221)and occurrence group(n=96)according to whether MC occurred.The influencing fac-tors was analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression models,a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the influencing factors.The predictive value was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results:Older age,longer course of disease,High fasting blood glucose(FPG),high glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c),low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),high low-den-sity lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)levels were independent risk factors for MC in elderly T2DM patients(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of age,course of disease,FPG,HbA1c,HDL-C,LDL-C and nomogram prediction model were 0.799,0.769,0.649,0.704,0.678,0.705 and 0.950 respectively.Conclusion:The MC occurs in elderly T2DM patients are closely relate to age,course of disease,FPG,HbA1c,HDL-C and LDL-C.The nomogram prediction model based on the above influencing factors can effectively predict the risk of MC in elderly T2DM patients.
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