Construction of a Column-Line Graph Prediction Model for Metabolism-Related Fatty Liver Disease in the Physical Examination Population Based on Serum Hcy,UA/Cr Ratio and TG/HDL-C Ratio
Objective:To construct a column-line graph prediction model for metabolism-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD)in the physical examination population based on serum homocysteine(Hcy),uric acid/creatinine ratio(UA/Cr ratio)and triglyc-eride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio(TG/HDL-C ratio),and to analyze the predictive value of the prediction model.Methods:653 cases of people were divided the study subjects into MAFLD group(161 cases)and non-MAFLD group(492 cases)according to whether MAFLD occurred or not,and the influencing factors were analyzed by multivariate Logistics regression,a column-line graph prediction model was constructed according to the results of multivariate Logistics regression analysis,the predictive value was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results:Among the 653 physical examination population included in this study,and the incidence of MAFLD was 24.66％(161/653).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that,serum HDL-C increased was a pro-tective factor for MAFLD in the physical examination population(P＜0.05).Alanine aminotransferase(ALT),body mass index(BMI),fasting blood glucose(FBG),Cr,UA,total cholesterol(TC),TG,Hcy,UA/Cr ratio,TG/HDL-C ratio and male were independent risk fac-tors for MAFLD in the physical examination population(P＜0.05).After correction,the column-line graph prediction model constructed with serum Hcy,TG,TC,HDL-C,UA,Cr,ALT,UA/Cr ratio and TG/HDL-C ratio as independent variables had a sensitivity of 99.38％and a specificity of 86.99％in predicting the risk of MAFLD in the physical examination population,the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.984,and the 95％CI was 0.976～0.991.Conclusion:Serum Hcy,UA/Cr ratio,and TG/HDL-C ratio increase in those diag-nosed with MAFLD in the physical examination population,and the column-line graph prediction model constructed on the basis of Hcy,UA/Cr ratio and TG/HDL-C ratio has a high predictive value for the risk of developing MAFLD in the physical examination population.
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