Influencing Factors and Forecast Analysis of Energy Demand in Jiangsu Province Under the Background of Carbon Emission Peak—Based on STIRPAT Model
Scientific prediction of energy demand is of important practical significance for controlling energy consumption.Based on the extended STIRPAT model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between energy demand and population size,ur-banization,economic development level,energy intensity,industrial structure and energy policy in Jiangsu Province,and predicts energy demand in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2035 based on different scenarios.The results showed that:1)The energy-saving policy of Jiangsu Province has gone through three evolution stages:The relatively stable stage from 1995 to 2003,the fluctuation rising stage from 2004 to 2015,and the high stable stage from 2016 to 2020.2)Population size has the greatest impact on energy demand in Jiangsu Province,with each 1 per cent increase in population size,energy demand will increase by 3.1566 per cent;with each 1％ increase in urbanization,per capita GDP,energy intensity and the proportion of secondary industry,energy demand will increase by 0.2207％,0.2766％,0.4157％ and 0.2568％respectively.The impact of energy policy is relatively weak.For every 1％increase in energy policy score,energy demand will decrease by 0.1653％.3)The energy demand in Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend in 31 scenarios,and there was no inflection point;from 2021 to 2035,the energy demand of Jiangsu Province was about 4.2 × 108-5.53 × 108 tee.Therefore,Jiangsu Province must take measures such as creating an at-mosphere of energy conservation and carbon reduction,transforming the mode of economic growth,optimizing the industrial structure and energy structure,and improving relevant policies and regulations to achieve the established goal of controlling energy consumption.
energy demandSTIRPAT modelinfluencing factorsridge regressionJiangsu province
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NSTL
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