突发公共事件对蔬菜价格的影响分析
Investigation into the Influences of Public Emergency Events on Vegetable Prices
章淑娜 1孙莉 1高天1
作者信息
- 1. 山东农业大学信息科学与工程学院,山东 泰安 271000
- 折叠
摘要
突发公共事件在短时间内急速爆发,有造成严重社会危害的风险.以刻画网民行为数据的百度指数作为刻画突发公共事件趋势的解释变量.通过向量自回归模型研究突发公共事件对蔬菜价格的影响.在百度平台获取2020年11月25日-2022年11月25日期间,"疫情"、"中高风险地区"、"新冠"、"新冠肺炎"、"新冠肺炎疫情",5个关键词的百度指数.在布瑞克平台获取土豆、茄子、豆角和大白菜4种蔬菜的价格日数据,建立VAR模型研究它们之间的关系.研究结果表明5个关键词的百度指数均是白菜价格的格兰杰原因,除"疫情"的百度指数外,其他4个关键词的百度指数均是豆角价格的格兰杰原因."中高风险地区"的百度指数分别是土豆和茄子价格的格兰杰原因.因此,以百度指数作为突发公共事件的监测指标是有效的.
Abstract
Public emergencies can erupt rapidly in a short period,posing a risk of severe social harm.This paper uses the Baidu index,which depicts the behavior data of netizens,as the explanatory variable for defining the trend of public emergency events.Study the impact of public emergency events on vegetable prices through a vector autoregressive model.We obtained the Baidu index of five keywords from November 25,2020,to November 25,2022,on the Baidu platform:"epidemic situation","medium and high-risk areas",and 3 Chinese words that have the same meaning as"COVID-19".The daily price of potatoes,eggplants,beans,and Chinese cabbage were obtained from the Brick platform.Finally,we establish a VAR model to study their relationship.The research results indicate that the Baidu index of all five keywords is the Granger cause of cabbage prices,and except for the Baidu index of"epidemic situation",the Baidu index of the other four keywords is the Granger cause of bean prices.The Baidu index for"medium to high-risk areas"is the Granger reason for the expenses of potatoes and eggplants,respectively.The data results indicate that using the Baidu index as a monitoring indicator for public emergencies is effective.
关键词
向量自回归模型/格兰杰因果关系/突发公共事件/蔬菜价格Key words
vector autoregressive model/Granger causality test/public emergency events/vegetable prices引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(11701337)
国家自然科学基金(52275262)
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2022MA009)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据