Investigation into the Influences of Public Emergency Events on Vegetable Prices
Public emergencies can erupt rapidly in a short period,posing a risk of severe social harm.This paper uses the Baidu index,which depicts the behavior data of netizens,as the explanatory variable for defining the trend of public emergency events.Study the impact of public emergency events on vegetable prices through a vector autoregressive model.We obtained the Baidu index of five keywords from November 25,2020,to November 25,2022,on the Baidu platform:"epidemic situation","medium and high-risk areas",and 3 Chinese words that have the same meaning as"COVID-19".The daily price of potatoes,eggplants,beans,and Chinese cabbage were obtained from the Brick platform.Finally,we establish a VAR model to study their relationship.The research results indicate that the Baidu index of all five keywords is the Granger cause of cabbage prices,and except for the Baidu index of"epidemic situation",the Baidu index of the other four keywords is the Granger cause of bean prices.The Baidu index for"medium to high-risk areas"is the Granger reason for the expenses of potatoes and eggplants,respectively.The data results indicate that using the Baidu index as a monitoring indicator for public emergencies is effective.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
