Factors Analysis and Dynamic Forecast of the Vacancy Rate of Commercial Housing in Shrinking Cities——Taking Hegang as an Example
Taking Hegang City as an example,this article constructs an index system of influence factors of commercial housing vacancy rate and combines the entropy method to determine the weight of each index,and then uses the gray correlation index to measure the degree of influence of each index on the vacancy rate of commercial housing,and uses the combined Markov dynamic forecasting model to explore the development law of the vacancy rate of commercial housing.The results show that the vacancy rate of commercial housing is comprehensively affected by the economic development level,social security capacity,and the vitality of the commercial housing market.Commercial housing vacancy rate shows a good correlation with the influence factors selected in the article,and the forecast data is increasing year by year.Based on this,the article proposes countermeasures to curb the vacancy rate of commercial housing in shrinking cities represented by Hegang City.
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