GM(1,1)-指数平滑组合与灰色区间振荡序列的综合预测——以灵活就业青年未来发展趋势为例
Integrated Prediction of GM(1,1)-Exponential Smoothing Combination and Grey Interval Oscillation Series——Take the Future Development Trend of Flexible Employment Youth as an Example
李红艳 1陈子微 2章瑞1
作者信息
- 1. 上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海 201620
- 2. 上海振华重工(集团)股份有限公司人力资源部,上海 200125
- 折叠
摘要
文章通过构建灰色GM(1,1)-三次指数平滑模型及灰色区间GM(1,1)模型对我国城镇灵活就业青年人数进行了综合性预测.首先,创新性地选用方差倒数法,构建了 GM(1,1)-三次指数平滑模型,该预测模型的平均绝对误差和平均相对误差最小,提高了预测精度.其次,根据小样本振荡序列的特征,构建了比较完善的灰色区间GM(1,1)模型,其结果显著地提高预测精度.最后,文章形成了基于"非正规就业率"的城镇灵活就业人数和灵活就业青年人数测算框架,并在引入老年人口系数基础上分别对灵活就业人员和青年人数建立GM(1,1)-三次指数平滑模型和灰色区间GM(1,1)模型,巧妙地将GM(1,1)-指数平滑模型与灰色区间GM(1,1)模型进行综合得到最终预测值,结果表明预测值与真实值吻合较好,实现了对多组数据的综合处理.
Abstract
By constructing the grey GM(1,1)-cubic exponential smoothing model and grey in-terval GM(1,1)model,this paper comprehensively predicts the number of flexible employment youth in urban areas.Firstly,the inverse variance method is innovatively used to construct the GM(1,1)-cubic exponential smoothing model.The average absolute error and average relative error of the model are minimized,and the prediction accuracy is improved.Secondly,accord-ing to the characteristics of small sample oscillation series,a relatively perfect grey interval GM(1,1)model is constructed,which significantly improves the prediction accuracy.Finally,this paper forms a framework for estimating the number of flexible employment in urban ar-eas and the number of flexible employment youth based on"informal employment rate",and establishes a GM(1,1)-cubic exponential smoothing model and a grey interval GM(1,1)model for the number of flexible employment and the number of flexible employment youth based on the introduction of the elderly population coefficient.The GM(1,1)-exponential smoothing model and the grey interval GM(1,1)model are cleverly integrated to obtain the final pre-dicted value.The results show that the predicted value is in good agreement with the real value,and the comprehensive processing of multiple sets of data is realized.
关键词
灵活就业青年人数/GM(1,1)-三次指数平滑/灰色区间GM(1,1)模型Key words
the number of flexible employment youth/GM(1,1)-cubic exponential smoothing/grey interval GM(1,1)model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71861015)
国家自然科学基金(72371153)
上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2022BGL004)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据